CONFIDENTIAL
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the so-called
seats should be directly elected. (30 was the consensus of unofficial members of LegCo and ExCo in 1990 OMELCO consensus: but since then the debate has polarised, and a consensus is probably no longer possible within
LegCo.)
9. Allen Lee's Cooperative Resources Centre have not taken a clear position on numbers. But some of its members have suggested, like most business leaders, that more democracy should not be pressed to the point where continuity in 1997 is lost. Recent opinion polls have shown more support for continuity and good relations with China than for a faster pace of democracy. When asked what action the Hong Kong Government might take to boost confidence in Hong Kong, only 3% (average of six surveys going back to March 1991) of respondents refer to a faster pace of democracy.
10. On the assumption that Ministers wish to raise with the Chinese the issue of a faster pace of democracy, there would be advantage in deciding first between two possible approaches, if the Chinese reaction proves to be obdurate:
to give top priority to preserving the through-train, and not to increase the number of directly elected seats beyond those provided for in the Basic Law against Chinese opposition.
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to go ahead with a faster pace of democracy at the next LegCo elections despite Chinese opposition, and leave it to them to decide whether to disband LegCo in 1997 and hold
fresh elections on the basis of the Basic Law.
11. There are a number of factors to be weighed in
reaching conclusions:
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Whether there are benefits for Hong Kong in establishing before 1997 more democratic local institutions to protect Hong Kong's autonomy post-1997, in the face of Chinese opposition.
The degree of support in Hong Kong for more democracy and how robust this would prove to be if the going got rough
BODAGD/3
CONFIDENTIAL
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