TNAG-2449-FCO40-3565-Legislative-Council-of-Hong-Kong-1992 — Page 16

CODE 18-77

Mr. Marshall, Thank you. V. useful

CONFIDENTIAL

Reference

pa Leg Co (78)

Frederik King (+ ADPL) wen expremely hostile to

existing functional constituence, to should be in favour of four attempts

Mr Bunten RB 10/12

Miss Saunders,

Mr Ricketts

низ

10/12

A HAS 07 Kelph. Lan ho

LEGCO: ELECTORAL ARITHMETIC

1.

democratise then.

me

pl.

Ро

10/2

14/10/12

Set out below for information is a rough guide to what seems to be the current state of play in LegCo, based on LegCo members' party affiliations, voting records, and comments both public and private. It suggests that the pro-Governor and anti-Governor blocs are fairly equal in terms of votes and that the middle-ground is tilted towards a compromise of one sort or another on the most controversial aspects of the Governor's proposals. However it is extremely difficult to tell from London how opinion is moving in LegCo. It would be useful to know how Hong Kong are calculating the likely votes.

2. The following are firm supporters of the Governor's proposals:

UDHK, 13 members; HKDF, 1 member (Jimmy McGregor); independents Martin Barrow, Christine Loh, Roger Luk and proposed new appointee Anna Wu. There are also the votes of the three official members. Total: 21.

and

3. The following are firmly opposed to the Governor's proposals: CRC, 17 members; DABHK, 1 member (Tam Yiu-Ching); independents Elsie Tu, Tang Sui-Tong, Chim Pui-Chung and Edward Ho, all of whom voted against both Christine Loh's motion in LegCo and the airport platform contract motion in Finance Committee. Total: 22.

4.

Frederick Fung

This leaves 16 "battleground" LegCo members: (ADPL), 4 members of Meeting Point and 11 independents. where our information becomes a lot more hazy.

/

This is

5.

Frederick Fung has indicated that the ADPL will probably table amendments to the proposals on the functional constituencies and on the election committee. These amendments could well attract the support of the anti-Governor bloc if they were a way of "defeating" the original proposals.

6.

-

-

The four members of Meeting Point have so far voted en bloc. They were in favour of Christine Loh's motion but against the airport platform contract. It seems that they too have considered tabling amendments to the Governor's proposals but Frederick Fung has said that they are under heavy pressure from the Chinese or at least from the NCNA not to do so. If they do not table amendments they will have the option of voting for other amendments, abstaining, or voting for the Governor. The four members might at this point vote in different ways. However, they are concerned to keep their lines open to China and would surely be extremely wary of voting in favour of the Governor's proposals on functional constituencies and the

CONFIDENTIAL