TNAG-2449-FCO40-3565-Legislative-Council-of-Hong-Kong-1992 — Page 141

COMMENT

CONFIDENTIAL

175446

MDHIAN

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5. ACCORDING TO OUR SOURCES, THE CRC ARE OUT TO MAKE POLITICAL CAPITAL: A FEW UDHK MEMBERS HAVE PREVIOUSLY STATED THEIR OPPOSITION TO UNCONDITIONAL MFN AND, AS A RESULT, THE UDHK HAVE BEEN CRITICISED FOR ACTING AGAINST HONG KONG'S ECONOMIC INTERESTS: AND THE CRC HAVE TOLD PRC OFFICIALS, INCLUDING JIANG ZEMIN, THAT THEY WILL INITIATE A LEGCO DEBATE ON MFN.

6. CLEARLY THE UDHK FIND THEMSELVES IN AN AWKWARD POSITION. IF THEY VOTED AGAINST THE MOTION, THEY WILL HAVE TO FACE CRITICISM IN HONG KONG. IF THEY VOTED FOR IT, THEY (ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO ARE ALSO MEMBERS OF THE HK ALLIANCE IN SUPPORT OF THE PATRIOTIC AND DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT IN CHINA) WILL BE SEEN AS HAVING BACKTRACKED FROM THEIR SUPPORT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS IMPROVEMENTS IN CHINA. THEIR PROPOSED AMENDMENT IS AN ATTEMPT TO MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR THEM TO SUPPORT UNCONDITIONAL MEN AND AT THE SAME TIME UPHOLD

THEIR POSITION ON HUMAN RIGHTS.

7. SINCE THE UDHK ARE PLAYING THEIR CARDS VERY CLOSE TO THEIR CHEST, MOST PROBABLY WE WILL NOT KNOW THE WORDING OF THEIR AMENDMENT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING (7 JULY). IRRESPECTIVE OF THE EXACT WORDING, HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE PERCEIVED AS LINKING MFN RENEWAL WITH HUMAN RIGHTS.

8. WE HAVE CONCLUDED THAT WE SHOULD ABSTAIN ON THE AMENDMENT, ASSUMING THERE ARE ENOUGH VOTES TO DEFEAT IT, BECAUSE THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT HAVE ALWAYS SUPPORTED UNCONDITIONAL RENEWAL OF MFN, AND THE UDHK AMENDMENT APPEARS TO BE DESIGNED TO QUALIFY THAT.

9. IN HIS SPEECH IN LEGCO ON BEHALF OF THE GOVERNMENT, SECRETARY FOR TRADE AND INDUSTRY WILL SAY THAT WE DO NOT SUPPORT THE AMENDMENT BECAUSE WE BELIEVE THAT MFN IS A TRADE ISSUE WHICH SHOULD NOT BE LINKED TO OTHER ISSUES AND THAT WE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION'S POSITION THAT MFN IS NOT THE RIGHT TOOL TO ACHIEVE OTHER POLICY OBJECTIVES.

10. AS REGARDS REACTION IN WASHINGTON, WE FEEL (AFTER CONSULTING MINISTER, HK ECONOMIC AND TRADE AFFAIRS, WASHINGTON) THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE DEFEAT OF THE AMENDMENT IN LEGCO OR THE HKG'S POSITION ON IT WILL AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF EITHER THE SENATE VOTE ON THE MITCHEL BILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN AUGUST OR THE SUBSEQUENT VETO OVERRIDE VOTE IN THE SENATE EXPECTED IN

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