Сергей, RJ
NCAM
in
GOVERNMENT ACTUARY'S DEPARTMENT
22 KINGSWAY LONDON WC2B 6LE
TELEPHONE 071-242 6828 Ext
AX 071-831 6653
3/üü Replied clarte Jax
218.
CONFIDENTIAL
ра
из
HKA 233/1
318
8766/6/1
31 July 1992
Mr N.J. Cox
Hong Kong Department
Foreign & Commonwealth Office
London SW1A 2AH
Dear Nigel
HONG KONG HMOCS OPTIONS
1.
2.
3.
Thank you for sending me a copy of your letter to Kevin Woodfield dated 27 July, and enclosing a draft note of the meeting held to discuss pensions for Hong Kong HMOCS. I am generally content with your draft note and with the list of actions you have suggested, which seems to record quite faithfully the substance of what was agreed at the meeting. You also enclosed a revised list of options to be costed and put before Ministers, and this revised list seems to be set out in a more logical fashion, and should be reasonably understandable to Ministers in broadly that form.
Calculation Timescale You asked for all the calculations to be completed within a 3 week period. I believe that we can provide most of the important calculations that have been requested within this timescale, but there is one issue on which we need your guidance. Paragraph 3(a) of your note on the meeting explained that it was important to get a clear idea of the number of contract officers who had opted to transfer to HMOCS status. Ideally, this information should be made available in order to produce correct costings. However, if the accurate data is not obtainable within a reasonable timescale, then the calculation of the costs will inevitably be delayed. One way of proceeding would be to obtain a reasonably firm steer on the number of Contract Officers who are likely to be accepted for HMOCS status, and to use the numbers on proportionate basis to determine future costs. Although this is less accurate than basing the calculations on specific individuals, it should be adequate for the purposes of assessing the policy options. If you are content with this approach, could you please let us know as soon as possible what you would regard as reasonable figures for the number of contract officers transferring to HMOCS status.
Options A and C Subject to clarification of the data point mentioned above, there should be no difficulty in producing figures for options A and C within the requested timescale. We can produce the bell graphs that were mentioned and, as discussed, an attractive form of presentation might be to show the 4 possible rates of exchange rate guarantee listed under Option A on the same bell graph, for each different scenario of future movements in the level of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate.
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