SECRET
HKA 233/1
FM UKREP JLG HONG KONG
TO IMMEDIATE F C O
TELNO 227
OF 21080OZ MAY 92
INFO PRIORITY PEKING, HONG KONG
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026710
MDHIAN 4908
21/50
TOP COPY Q DIST?
328
334
YOUR TELNO 403 AND PEKING TELNO 695: HMOCS CONSULTATIONS: EARLY RETIREMENT
1. I AGREE THAT THE CHINESE POSITION ON EXPATRIATES MAY BE SOMEWHAT AMBIVALENT. BUT I THINK THEIR ATTITUDE WILL BE PRIMARILY DETERMINED BY THE FOLLOWING CONSIDERATIONS.
2.
FIRST THEY HAVE AN OVERRIDING CONCERN WITH MAINTAINING STABILITY THROUGH THE TRANSITION. THEY FEAR (WITH SOME JUSTIFICATION) THAT THIS COULD BE A TURBULENT PERIOD, BOTH POLITICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY, AND UNDERSTAND THE CRUCIAL ROLE OF THE POLICE AND CIVIL SERVICE IN MAINTAINING PUBLIC ORDER AND GOOD GOVERNMENT. WHATEVER THEIR TRUE ATTITUDE TO THE PROSPECT OF LARGE NUMBERS OF EXPATRIATES CONTINUING TO WORK FOR THE SARG IN THE LONG TERM, THEY KNOW THAT EXPATRIATES, PARTICULARLY AT THE SENIOR LEVELS, ARE NOW AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT OF THE POLICE AND CIVIL SERVICE, THAT THIS WILL STILL BE THE CASE IN 1997, AND THAT THEIR DEPARTURE IN SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS AROUND 1997 WOULD UNDERMINE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THESE BODIES. THEY WOULD THEREFORE SEE A PROPOSAL TO GIVE HMOCS OFFICERS THE RIGHT TO RETIRE WITH PENSION IN 1997 AS A THREAT TO STABILITY AND INIMICAL TO THEIR INTERESTS. GIVEN THEIR PRESENT STATE OF MIND, THEY WOULD PROBABLY INTERPRET THE MOVE AS A DELIBERATE PLOT RATHER THAN A MATTER OF OUR DISCHARGING A MORAL OBLIGATION TO HMOCS MEMBERS. I SHARE SIR R MCLAREN'S ASSESSMENT THAT THEY WOULD DEMAND FULL CONSULTATION IN THE JLG.
3. SECONDLY, THEY WOULD ARGUE THAT THE PROPOSAL WAS DIVISIVE AND DISCRIMINATORY CA VIEW WHICH THEY WOULD BE LIKELY TO HEAR FROM LOCAL OFFICERS AND MORE WIDELY IN HONG KONG). MY GUESS IS THAT THEY WOULD SEE ADVANTAGE IN OPPOSING IT, AND BEING SEEN TO DO SO, IN ORDER TO IMPROVE THEIR IMAGE IN THE EYES OF LOCAL OFFICERS AND THE COMMUNITY AT LARGE. (I DO NOT SHARE YOUR VIEW, INCIDENTALLY, THAT THE PROPOSAL WOULD BE LOW KEY AND UNCONTROVERSIAL. LIKE EVERYTHING ELSE IN HONG KONG, IT WOULD BECOME POLITICISED.)
4.
THIRDLY, THEY WOULD TAKE A VERY HARD LOOK AT THE FINANCIAL
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