CONFIDENTIAL
FM UKREP JLG HONG KONG
TO DESKBY 10110OZ FCO TELNO 81
OF 100315Z MARCH 92
CONFIDENTIAL
HKA 233/1 TOP COPY
INFO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG, PEKING
86
81
Q DIST?
YOUR TELNOS 452 AND 453: HMOCS: BRIEFING THE CHINESE
85
155531
MDHIAN 6178
Bein dealt with
Вей
Фил
1013
Separately.
1. THE STRATEGY BEHIND OUR PROPOSED APPROACH TO THIS MATTER WITH THE CHINESE WAS DESIGNED TO ALLOW US TO REPRESENT THE SUBJECT AS A MATTER BETWEEN HMG AND ITS OWN SERVANTS, HMOCS. AS SUCH, IT WAS REASONABLE TO INFORM THE CHINESE, AND EVEN TO LISTEN TO THEIR OPINIONS IF THEY HAD ANY, BUT ANY DECISIONS WERE STRICTLY FOR HMG.
2. IF PRESENTED IN THIS WAY, WE DO NOT THINK THAT SUSPICION 2(B) IN YOUR FIRST TUR WOULD BE LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE CHINESE, SINCE ANY LINING OF POCKETS WOULD BE AT HMG'S AND NOT HKG'S EXPENSE. SUSPICION 2(A) MIGHT OCCUR TO THEM, BUT WOULD BE BALANCED BY THEIR OWN WISH TO HAVE AS MUCH CONTINUITY AS POSSIBLE IN ORDER TO AVOID SHOCKS.
3. WHAT YOU ARE PROPOSING IS A DIFFERENT BALL GAME ALTOGETHER. THE SPEAKING NOTE MAKES IT CLEAR THAT THIS IS A MATTER CONCERNING HKG, AND EVEN WORSE CONCERNING POTENTIAL SARG OBLIGATIONS. AS SUCH IT IS INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM A CONSULTATION DOCUMENT. WE CANNOT MAINTAIN THAT THIS IS SOLELY A MATTER BETWEEN HMG AND HMOCs. THE CHINESE WILL PROBABLY BE INTENSELY SUSPICIOUS FOR THE REASONS YOU GIVE. THEY WILL CERTAINLY INSIST THAT WE DO NOTHING UNTIL AGREEMENT HAS BEEN REACHED WITH THEM. IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES I SUSPECT THAT WE WILL FIND IT IMPOSSIBLE TO PROCEED WITH FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS WITH HMOCS PENDING A RESOLUTION OF CONSULTATIONS WITH THE CHINESE. THESE WOULD BE PROTRACTED AND VERY LIKELY UNSUCCESSFUL. I THINK IT INCONCEIVABLE THAT CHINA WOULD AGREE TO PAYMENT BY THE SARG OF MONIES TO DISCHARGE HMG'S OBLIGATION TO HMOCS. I ALSO THINK IT INCONCEIVABLE THAT THEY WILL ACQUIESCE IN PAYMENTS BY HKG FOR SUCH A PURPOSE, THOUGH THEY MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO PREVENT HKG MAKING SUCH PAYMENTS UNILATERALLY BEFORE 1997.
4.
YOUR TACTIC OF HOLDING BACK THE CARD OF UKG PAYMENT (YOUR PARA 4) WOULD ONLY MAKE SENSE IF WE WERE DELIBERATELY EMBARKING ON A NEGOTIATION WITH THE CHINESE. EVEN IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES I DO NOT MUCH LIKE THE IDEA OF EMBARKING ON A COURSE WITH SUCH AN OBVIOUS
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