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scheme would give them a degree of certainty that their
ensions would not become worthless even if the Hong Kong dollar collapsed. The costs of the scheme cannot be predicted they could be zero if the Hong Kong dollar stayed stronger than the safeguard rate or they could amount to several hundred million pounds if it became worthless. While the scheme would be divisive to a certain extent in the Civil Service, the Governor is satisfied that it should be possible to contain this by pointing out that HMG were paying, pursuant to their past undertakings to HMOCS members.
Comment: Departments differ on whether HMG should be prepared to take on the contingent liability proposed.
(f) Decision not to offer a Scheme
An
17. This would risk an exodus of HMOCS from Hong Kong before 1997, with the consequences noted above for our ability to administer Hong Kong effectively. HMOCS officers would no doubt also bring pressure to bear on HMG through Parliament and the media and would seek judicial review of the decision. Such a campaign would highlight their lack of confidence in the guarantees contained in the Joint Declaration: this would be damaging in Hong Kong and internationally and would further antagonise Peking. exodus would face HKG with the decision of whether they could do more to encourage key HMOCS officers, eg in the Police Force, to stay: for example by raising salaries or improving other conditions of service (although in practice they would have to do this for all civil servants and police officers at the same rank: they could not be seen to discriminate in favour of expatriates). However, HMG could not be certain of escaping all costs, if they were to adopt this approach. If the Hong Kong dollar were to collapse, or if the SARG were to stop paying pensions, HMG might still be obliged to intervene (by the terms of the Carr- Robertson assurance, see Annex A, that HMG would not stand aside in
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