CONFIDENTIAL
10.
In Hong Kong, HMOCS officers' sense of frustration has been mounting steadily, despite HKG's and our efforts to keep a lid on it. There is a growing suspicion that HMG does not intend to honour past commitments and is stringing the officers along. Ministerial assurances of good intent
no longer cut ice.
11.
Hong Kong HMOCS officers have established an association in order to press their claims. The Association will hold its inaugural meeting on 28 January: several hundred members are expected to attend. HKG believe that, in the absence of any news from London, the present responsible leadership of the Association may lose control and more extremist members (eg from the police) may take over. Media attention is likely anyway. The Association has also been lobbying MPs, and can count on the active support of the well-connected Overseas Service Pensioners' Association here. They will not be prepared to wait until after the General Election. A political row is therefore likely. Senior Hong Kong civil servants and police officers will make public their lack of confidence in China's honouring the Joint Declaration. Such a row, apart from the domestic political impact, would further erode Hong Kong confidence in HMG's commitment to the territory's future; and it would intensify our difficulties with the Chinese, who will be concerned that inaction on HMG's part may be
risking the stability of Hong Kong post-1997.
China Angle
12. Any decision on HMOCS arrangements will need careful presentation to the Chinese. If we go for an HMG-funded scheme designed to provide an incentive for people to stay in Hong Kong, we shall have to convince China that our purpose is stability and continuity, not maintenance of
BODAFX/6
CONFIDENTIAL
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