TNAG-2414-FCO40-3516-Hong-Kong-Port-and-Airport-Development-Strategy-(PADS)-fina-1992 — Page 168

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Traffic Forecasts

13.

Traffic forecasts

were estimated by the PAA's Master Plan consultants on a conservative basis. Between 1980 and 1990 the number of passengers using Kai Tak increased at an annual growth rate of 10.6% from 6.8 million to nearly 18.7 million. The Master Plan consultants estimated an average growth rate of 4.4% between 1997 to 2010, dropping to 2.3% between 2010 and 2040. The majority of revenues forecast for the AA are related directly to the air traffic forecasts; because Kai Tak closes on the opening of Chek Lap Kok, there is a high degree of certainty associated with the great bulk of the air traffic forecast for the new airport which will inherit all of Kai Tak's traffic.

Revenue Projections

14.

Aeronautical charges

these are charges made on airlines for using the airport; the main charges are for landing and parking. It has been assumed that, on the target opening date of the new airport, the level of these charges will have been set at three times the level, in real terms, of such charges at Kai Tak in July 1989 (charges are adjusted annually in July). The airlines using Kai Tak have been informed of this intention and the justification for it. This level of charging is considered justified in terms of the financial requirements of the project as a whole and was the level recommended in earlier airport financial studies. It would mean that the Chek Lap Kok's charges would be at a higher level than those of some regional airports, e.g. in Bangkok and Singapore but they would be lower than several European airports and Narita Airport in Tokyo, Japan.

15.

Revenues from concessions

the AA will obtain significant revenue from payments by the following types of concessions dealing with aircraft and air cargo servicing -

aircraft maintenance and engineering;

a)

b)

air cargo handling;

c)

d)

aircraft apron handling;

e)

aircraft catering;

aircraft refuelling;

and from the following types of concessions within the passenger terminal complex

f) duty free liquor and tobacco concessions;

g)

general retail;

h)

airline and other offices;

i)

baggage handling;

j)

passenger/baggage security.