CONFIDENTIAL
Pa
154765 MDHIAN 8135
4
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HANOI
TO DESKBY 07093OZ FCO
TELNO 001
OF 070637Z JANAURY 92
INFO DESKBY 07093OZ HONG KONG
HKA 020114
ime
INFO PRIORITY WASHINGTON, UKMIS GENEVA, UKREP BRUSSELS
HONG KONG PLEASE PASS TO LORD CAITHNESS VISITING
MY TELNOS 03 AND 06 AND HONG KONG TELNO 34:
34
VIETNAMESE MIGRANTS: VISIT OF LORD CAITHNESS: ORP II
1 I AGREE WITH HONG KONG TUR THAT LORD CAITHNESS' VISIT HERE OFFERS A TIMELY OPPORTUNITY TO SEEK ONCE AGAIN TO GET THE VIETNAMESE BACK ON COURSE ON ORP II. I HOPE, GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL AT WHICH LORD CAITHNESS WILL BE RECEIVED HERE, THAT HIS ARGUMENTS WILL CAUSE THE VIETNAMESE TO REFLECT. IT WAS HOWEVER ABUNDANTLY CLEAR FROM OUR INTENSIVE NEGOTIATIONS HERE ALREADY THAT THE VIETNAMESE DECISION HAS BEEN TAKEN AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL (WHICH MEANS THE POLITBUREAU). THERE ARE A NUMBER OF POLITBUREAU MEMBERS WHO WOULD BE PERFECTLY CONTENT TO LEAVE THE CAMP POPULATION IN HONG KONG PRECISELY WHERE IT IS RATHER THAN ADD TO PROBLEMS HERE. THERE IS ALSO NOW A QUESTION OF FACE INVOLVED AND I DOUBT WHETHER THE VIETNAMESE WOULD CLIMB DOWN WITHOUT AT LEAST SOME GESTURE ON THE FINANCING OF REINTEGRATION.
2. AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND IT LOOKS FROM HERE AS IF EVEN A SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME TO LORD CAITHNESS' EFFORTS WOULD RISK NOT PRODUCING ANY CHANGE IN THE VIETNAMESE POSITION ON ORP II FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THE QUESTION IS, CAN WE AFFORDA STALEMATE? AS SEEN FROM HERE, THE NEED TO MAINTAIN THE FLOW OF VOLUNTEERS AFTER TET, THE IMMINENT QUOTES SAILING SEASON UNQUOTES AND THE DANGER OF A RENEWED EXODUS FROM VIETNAM INDICATE THAT IT WOULD BE RISKY TO WAIT.
3. IN THE CIRCUMSTANCES THEREFORE I SUGGEST THAT LORD CAITHNESS' MIGHT TEMPER FIRMNESS ON PRINCIPLE WITH SOME INDICATION OF MODEST FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO VILLAGES/COMMUNITIES TO WHICH A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF ORP II PEOPLE WILL RETURN. IT WOULD BE CRUCIAL TO AVOID ANY SUGGESTION OF A PER CAPITA FIGURE OR ANY MENTION OF A TOTAL SUM. WE WOULD SIMPLY TELL
PAGE
1
CONFIDENTIAL
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.