CONFIDENTIAL
HKA 020/14
"1
173016
MDHIAN 8933
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
TO IMMEDIATE F C O
TELNO 108
OF 13110OZ JANUARY 92
AND TO IMMEDIATE HANOI
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INFO IMMEDIATE UKREP BRUSSELS, UKMIS GENEVA, WASHINGTON, BANGKOK INFO PRIORITY NEW DELHI
BANGKOK FOR PS/LORD CAITHNESS (VISITING)
NEW DELHI FOR BURNS, AUSS (VISITING)
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HANOI TELNOS 30-32, 34 AND 35: RECOMMENDATIONS
VIETNAMESE MIGRANTS: ORP II:
WE AGREE ENTIRELY WITH THE OBJECTIVES AS SET OUT IN PARA 2
OF HANOI TELNO 31.
2.
WE ALSO BELIEVE THAT IT IS IMPORTANT FOR LORD CAITHNESS'S VISIT TO BE SEEN PUBLICLY AS A SUCCESS, TO AVOID GIVING THE IMPRESSION THAT ORP II HAS RUN INTO DIFFICULTIES. WE HAVE DRAWN ON THE CONTENTS OF HANOI TELNO 32 IN REPLYING TO PRESS QUESTIONS, BUT THIS IS LIKELY TO HOLD ONLY FOR A LIMITED TIME. WE NEED TO ACHIEVE AGREEMENT ON ORP II IN THE NEAR FUTURE, IF WE ARE TO AVOID THE PERCEPTION THAT IT IS IN TROUBLE.
3.
I CANNOT SEE ANY REALISTIC PROSPECT OF HONG KONG BEING ABLE
TO CONTRIBUTE DIRECTLY TO REINTEGRATION COSTS ON A PER CAPITA BASIS, EITHER NOW OR IN THE FUTURE (SEE PARA 2 OF MY TELNO 35). NEITHER THE PUBLIC NOR LEGCO WOULD ACCEPT THIS, PARTICULARLY AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF MASSIVE EXPENDITURE HERE OVER THE YEARS
AND A UNHCR DEBT TO HONG KONG NOW STANDING AT POUNDS 32M. NOR COULD ONE EXPECT THE VIETNAMESE ARGUMENTS (THAT SAVINGS ACHIEVED BY HONG KONG AS RESULT OF THE ORP'S SUCCESS SHOULD BE DIVERTED TO VIETNAM TO FUND THE COST OF REINTEGRATION) TO ACHIEVE ANY RESONANCE HERE. IT WOULD, I FEAR, BE SEEN SIMPLY AS DANEGELD.
4.
I DO NOT RULE OUT A LATER STAGE THE POSSIBILITY OF A ONE-OFF CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION WHICH WOULD VISIBLY HELP CLEAR THE CAMP POPULATION IN TWO TO THREE YEARS. THIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, ONLY AFTER ORP II HAD BEEN UP AND RUNNING FOR ABOUT SIX MONTHS, AND A REPATRIATION AS A WHOLE WAS RUNNING AT A HIGH LEVEL, RESULTING IN A STEADY REDUCTION IN CAMP POPULATIONS. IF
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