TNAG-2401-FCO40-3488-Vietnamese-migrants-Orderly-Repatriation-Programme-(ORP)-1992 — Page 151

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003152

MOLIAN 2563

CONFIDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG

TO PRIORITY F C O

TELNO 838

OF 181115Z MARCH 92

CONFIDENTIAL

Pa

mp

HKA 020/14

0 1 APR 1992

INFO PRIORITY HANOI, UKMIS GENEVA, WASHINGTON, UKREP BRUSSELS

VIETNAMESE MIGRANTS: ORP II

WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING WITH HMA HANOI THE WAY AHEAD ON ORP II. GIVEN THE IMPASSE WE APPEARED TO HAVE REACHED WITH THE VIETNAMESE ON THIS, AND THE ABSENCE OF ARRIVALS, THE SITUATION IS THAT WE HAVE EFFECTIVELY NO/NO PROSPECT OF ANY ORP FLIGHT IN THE NEAR FUTURE. CONVERSELY VOLUNTARY REPATRIATION IS GOING FAIRLY WELL, ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO DISRUPTION FROM RUMOURS ABOUT VANUATU, NEW CUT-OFF DATES, AND MISUNDERSTANDING ARISING FROM THE QUAYLE STATEMENT ETC. THE PROBLEM WE FACE IS THAT A NEW SURGE OF ARRIVALS, PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL VIETNAM, MIGHT START AT ANY TIME. EQUALLY THE VOLUNTARY PROGRAMME MIGHT SUDDENLY DEFLATE IN THE SAME WAY THAT IT DID (FOR INSTANCE) AT THE END OF 1990. THERE IS THEREFORE SOME CONSIDERABLE ADVANTAGE TO US IN SECURING AN EARLY AGREEMENT TO ORP II, BOTH TO DETER NEW ARRIVALS AND TO UNDERLINE THE MESSAGE TO POTENTIAL VOLUNTEERS.

2.

HMA HANOIS' VIEW IS THAT WE WILL NOT/NOT GET EVEN A LIMITED ORP II (SAY 3 FLIGHTS) WITHOUT A COMMITMENT OF SOME KIND TO HKG FUNDING. HE BELIEVES THAT SOME PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN DEFLATING VIETNAMESE EXPECTATIONS ABOUT A MASSIVE LUMP SUM BASED ON ''SAVINGS'' HERE, AND TAKES ENCOURAGEMENT FROM THE NEW VIETNAMESE APPROACH ON ''PARALLELISM'' CHANOI TELNO 171 TO FCO). BUT WE STILL FACE THE DIFFICULTY THAT IT WILL BE VERY HARD TO PERSUADE LEGCO TO ACCEPT ANY SORT OF UP-FRONT PAYMENT FOR THE VIETNAMESE TO TAKE BACK THEIR OWN PEOPLE.

3.

WE HAVE THEREFORE CONCLUDED THAT WE SHOULD TRY, BOTH HERE AND IN VIETNAM, TO EXPLORE FURTHER THE BASIS FOR A POSSIBLE OFFER TO THE VIETNAMESE TO HELP IN A LIMITED WAY WITH REINTEGRATION. WE HAVE CONSIDERED THE ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS OF:

(A)

DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO THE VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT FOR IMPROVING RECEPTION AND TRAINING FACILITIES:

(B)

A CASH FIGURE PER HEAD, PERHAPS LINKED TO EVERY RETURN

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