TNAG-2384-FCO40-3466-Emigration-from-Hong-Kong-1991 — Page 63

CONFIDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG

TO DESKBY 1809OOZ F C O

TELNO 826

OF 180734Z MARCH 91

INFO PRIORITY HKGO LONDON

CONFIDENTIAL

6

173321

MDHIAN 8389

TO Q DIST

HKD 341/1

MAR 199

YRTELNO 504: EMIGRATION STATISTICS

NUMBER OF EMIGRANTS

1. THE NUMBER OF EMIGRANTS LEAVING HONG KONG IN 1990 WAS 62,000, THE HIGHEST LEVEL EVER SUSTAINED BY HONG KONG. IT MAY BE COMPARED WITH ABOUT 45,000 EACH YEAR IN 1988 AND 1989, AND 30,000 IN 1987, AGAINST A STABLE HISTORICAL AVERAGE OF ABOUT 20,000 IN THE 1970S AND THE EARLY PART OF 1980S.

2. THERE ARE TWO MAIN REASONS ACCOUNTING FOR THE INCREASE IN 1990. FIRST, IN LATE 1989 AND EARLY 1990, THE CANADIAN COMMISSION MADE A DETERMINED EFFORT TO CLEAR THE BACKLOG OF APPLICATIONS. THEY EMPLOYED MORE LOCAL STAFF AND REDEPLOYED SPECIALISTS FROM CANADA. THIS RESULTED IN A SHARP INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF VISAS ISSUED IN 1990, AND, INEVITABLY, AN EXPECTEDLY HIGH LEVEL OF DEPARTURE BY THE CLOSE OF THE YEAR. CANADA NOW TAKES UP FIFTY PERCENT OF ALL OUR EMIGRANTS. SECONDLY, THE SINGAPOREAN SCHEMES BEGAN TO MAKE AN IMPACT. ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE ACTUALLY LEAVING WAS LOW COMPARED WITH THE NUMBER OF APPROVALS GIVEN, ABOUT 20 LOCAL FAMILIES LEFT PER WEEK FOR SINGAPORE IN 1990 UNDER VARIOUS SINGAPOREAN IMMIGRATION SCHEMES APPLIED TO HONG KONG.

3. FOR 1991, WE EXPECT THE LEVEL OF TOTAL EMIGRATION TO STABILISE AT 60,000. THE BULK OF EMIGRATION IN 1991 WOULD BE DETERMINED BY VISAS APPROVED LAST YEAR AND THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR. ASSUMING THAT THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE IMMIGRATION POLICIES OF THE MAJOR DESTINATION COUNTRIES AND THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN CHINA REMAINS STABLE, AND AS REGISTRATION UNDER THE BRITISH NATIONALITY SCHEME IS IN PROGRESS, WE EXPECT THE VOLUME OF EMIGRATION TO GO DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF 1991.

PROFILE

4. THE PROPORTION OF EMIGRANTS IN THE PROFESSIONAL, TECHNICAL, ADMINISTRATIVE AND MANAGERIAL CATEGORY OF THE WORK-FORCE HAS INCREASED FROM 14 PER CENT IN THE EARLY TO MID 1980S TO ABOUT 25 PER CENT AT PRESENT. THIS PHENOMENAL RISE WAS ACHIEVED DESPITE

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