TNAG-2384-FCO40-3466-Emigration-from-Hong-Kong-1991 — Page 51

CONFIDENTIAL

017056

MDHIAN 6281

C

IDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

TELNO 3135

OF 080302Z OCTOBER 91

INFO PRIORITY HKGO LONDON

YRTELNO 1773: EMIGRATION STATISTICS

1. EMIGRATION IN 1991 IS PROVISIONALLY ESTIMATED TO BE JUST OVER 60,000. FINAL ESTIMATES FOR THE YEAR SHOULD BE AVAILABLE EARLY NEXT YEAR. THE MAJORITY OF IMMIGRANTS IN 1991 ARE THOSE WHOSE VISAS WERE ISSUED IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 1990 AND EARLY THIS YEAR. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE EFFECT OF THE BRITISH NATIONALITY SCHEME ON EMIGRATION, AS ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PASSPORTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED UNDER THE SCHEME TO-DATE.

2. CANADA, AUSTRALIA AND USA ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME 84 PERCENT OF ALL EMIGRATION IN 1991. THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE EMIGRATING TO CANADA DURING THE YEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE 18,300 OR 30 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL, SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN FROM 47 PERCENT IN 1990 LARGELY DUE TO THE INCREASED SHARE OF OTHER COUNTRIES. EMIGRATION TO AUSTRALIA IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN INCREASING IN RECENT YEARS, AND IS LIKELY TO ACCOUNT FOR 29 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL THIS YEAR. FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE US IMMIGRATION ACT IN 1990, WHICH INCREASED THE QUOTA FOR HONG KONG FROM 5,000 TO 10,000 A YEAR FOR 1991-93, EMIGRATION TO USA IN 1991 IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 15,500 OR 25 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL. EMIGRATION TO NEW ZEALAND AND SINGAPORE IN 1991 IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 5,000 AND 2,750 RESPECTIVELY.

3. EMIGRATION FROM HONG KONG IS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE RATE AT WHICH APPLICATIONS ARE PROCESSED BY FOREIGN CONSULATES. INFORMATION AVAILABLE TO-DATE SUGGESTS THAT EMIGRATION IN 1992 IS LIKELY TO STAY AT ABOUT 60,000, POSSIBLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY OWING TO THE INCREASING PREFERENCE GIVEN BY DESTINATION COUNTRIES TO APPLICANTS FROM HONG KONG.

PROFILES

4. THE OVERALL COMPOSITION OF EMIGRANTS IN TERMS OF AGE, EDUCATION AND OCCUPATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE PAST THREE YEARS. THE PROPORTION OF EMIGRANTS IN THE PROFESSIONAL, TECHNICAL, ADMINISTRATIVE AND MANAGERIAL CATEGORY OF THE WORK-FORCE REMAINS AT ABOUT 25 PERCENT. ABOUT 15 PERCENT

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