CONFIDENTIAL
MDHIAN
ENCROACHMENT, THE PUBLIC IS STILL PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE SARG'S ABILITY TO DEFEND ITS AUTONOMY AFTER 1997. THIS GLOOMY ASSESSMENT REFLECTS A GENERAL SCEPTICISM ABOUT PEKING'S WILLINGNESS TO INTERPRET IN A GENEROUS SPIRIT ITS UNDERTAKINGS IN THE JOINT DECLARATION. JUNE 1989 LEFT THE HONG KONG COMMUNITY WITH VERY FEW ILLUSIONS ABOUT THE NATURE OF THE REGIME IN PEKING. ITS RECENT ATTEMPTS TO INTERFERE IN THE ADMINISTRATION OF HONG KONG HAVE ONLY SERVED TO AGGRAVATE ANXIETIES ABOUT THE PRC'S INTERPRETATION OF THE POST-1997 GOVERNMENT'S AUTONOMY.
PADS
6. OUR ASSESSMENT IS THAT THE LEVEL OF PUBLIC SUPPORT ON BOTH PADS AND THE UNDERLYING AUTONOMY ISSUE REMAINS HIGH, DESPITE HOSTILE PUBLIC COMMENT FROM PRC OFFICIALS EARLIER IN THE YEAR. THE MOST RECENT OPINION POLL EVIDENCE DATES FROM THE TURN OF THE YEAR, WHEN 65 PER CENT OF RESPONDENTS GAVE HKG GENERAL BACKING ON PADS. 53 PER CENT THOUGHT HKG RIGHT ''TO ACT INDEPENDENTLY OF CHINA ON PADS''.
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7 THE COMMUNITY ASSUMES THAT THESE ISSUES WILL BE HIGH ON THE AGENDA FOR YOUR VISIT TO PEKING. THERE IS A GENERAL HOPE, AND SOME OPTIMISM, THAT YOUR VISIT WILL RESULT IN A SQUARING OF THE CONSULTATION AUTONOMY CIRCLE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PADS PROJECTS TO PROCEED WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE PRC.
THE FINANCIAL RESERVES
8. THE CHINESE SIDE HAVE ENSURE THAT THEIR VIEWS ON THE LEVEL OF FINANCIAL RESERVES TO BE INHERITED BY THE SARG HAVE REACHED THE PRESS. THE FIGURE OF DOLLARS 50 BILLION HAS BEEN WIDELY QUOTED AS WHAT THEY ARE DEMANDING SHOULD BE LEFT IN THE FISCAL RESERVES IN 1997. THIS HAS ADDED TO THE ANXIETY ABOUT FUTURE PRC INTERFERENCE.
THE DISTRICT BOARD ELECTIONS
9. THE DB ELECTIONS WERE HELD ON 3 MARCH. THE TURNOUT, AT 32 PER CENT, WAS HIGHER THAN MOST COMMENTATORS HAD PREDICTED AND WAS AN ENCOURAGING REVERSAL OF THE DOWNWARD TREND WHICH BEGAN IN 1985. THE PUBLIC SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN COMFORTABLE WITH THE EMERGENCE OF POLITICAL PARTIES AND APPEARS TO HAVE WELCOMED A CLEAR CHOICE BETWEEN THE TWO BROAD POLITICAL GROUPINGS (I.E., THE ''DEMOCRATS'' AND THE ''CONSERVATIVES'').
10. THE UNITED DEMOCRATS OF HONG KONG (LED BY MARTIN LEE AND SZETO WAH) EMERGED AS THE MOST OBVIOUS WINNERS, BUT THE OVERT
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