CONFIDENTIAL
021727
MDHIAN 3319
THE TIME BEING. THE LATEST CNTA OPINION POLL SHOWED THAT 13 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS IN SEPTEMBER THIS YEAR INTENDED TO MIGRATE, COMPARED WITH 15 PERCENT FOR THE SAME MONTH IN 1990.
17. THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MIGRANTS RETURNING. A POLL PUBLISHED IN OCTOBER REPORTED THAT 19 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH MEMBERS OVERSEAS EXPECTED THEIR RELATIVES TO RETURN FOR EMPLOYMENT IN HONG KONG THIS YEAR. (THE COMPARABLE FIGURE FOR 1989 AND 1990 WAS 6 PERCENT.) THIS SHIFT IS IMPORTANT, BECAUSE EMIGRATION PLANS ARE SHARPLY CORRELATED WITH EDUCATIONAL LEVELS CA QUARTER OF RESPONDENTS WITH POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION HAVE PLANS TO LEAVE HONG KONG).
LAW AND ORDER
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18. THIS REMAINS A MAJOR ANXIETY FOR THE PUBLIC AS A RESULT OF A CONTINUING WAVE OF ARMED ROBBERIES, ALTHOUGH ANXIETY ABOUT OTHER CRIMES IS DIMINISHING. SOME RECENT MAJOR SUCCESSES BY THE POLICE
MAY HAVE BEGUN TO IMPROVE THE POSITION.
19. THE COMMUNITY'S ANXIETIES ABOUT CROSS-BORDER CRIME INCREASED
DRASTICALLY THIS MONTH WITH MEDIA REPORTS OF A SERIOUS INTRUSION
INTO HONG KONG WATERS BY ARMED AND UNIFORMED PRC PERSONNEL
APPARENTLY INVOLVED IN SMUGGLING. PUBLIC CONCERN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE STILL FURTHER IF THE MEDIA OBTAIN FULLER INFORMATION ON
THE SHARP RISE IN SUCH INCIDENTS THIS MONTH (SEVEN SINCE MID- OCTOBER, COMPARED WITH ONLY SIX FROM MAY 1990 TO MID-OCTOBER THIS YEAR).
20. THE COMMUNITY WILL INTERPRET THIS TREND AS A MAJOR THREAT TO
OUR JOINT EFFORTS WITH THE GUANGDONG AUTHORITIES TO COMBAT THE CRIMINAL ORGANISATIONS WHICH ARE ENGAGED, NOT JUST IN SHIPPING CONTRABAND GOODS INTO CHINA, BUT IN SMUGGLING WEAPONS AND CRIMINALS INTO THE TERRITORY. WE WILL NEED TO RESPOND TO LEGCO AND COMMUNITY PRESSURES ON THIS TOPIC, WITH AN UNAMBIGUOUS DEMONSTRATION OF OUR DETERMINATION TO MAKE CLEAR TO THE CHINESE AUTHORITIES THAT THESE INCIDENTS ARE INTOLERABLE.
WILSON
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