TNAG-2329-FCO40-3373-Hong-Kong-contacts-with-academics-and-writers-1991 — Page 211

CONFIDENTIAL

FM FCO

TO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG

TELNO 255

OF 04114OZ FEBRUARY 91

CONFIDENTIAL

✅ fir P Cradock No to

ك

& pe academics / writers.

RMM 5/2.

(ID)

010063

MDHOAN 7165

HKC282/1

HY

0 7 FEB 1991

AND TO IMMEDIATE PEKING, UKREP JLG HONG KONG, BTC HONG KONG

OBSERVER ARTICLE ON HONG KONG NEGOTIATIONS

26

1.

YOU WILL HAVE SEEN AN ARTICLE IN THE OBSERVER OF 3 FEBRUARY BY STEVE VINES (BEING FAXED TO PEKING ONLY) ABOUT THE INITIATION OF TALKS WITH THE CHINESE OVER HONG KONG IN 1979. VINES CLAIMS THAT IF WE HAD NOT PROVOKED CHINA INTO INSISTING ON ITS SOVEREIGNTY RIGHTS DURING SIR MURRAY MACLEHOSE'S VISIT TO PEKING IN 1979, BRITAIN COULD HAVE HELD ON TO HONG KONG INTO THE 21ST CENTURY. THE ARTICLE IS APPARENTLY AN EXCERPT FROM VINES' FORTHCOMING BOOK ''AWAITING THE AVALANCHE''

MANY OF THE THEMES IN VINES' ARTICLE REFLECT THOSE IN THE ROSS MUNRO ARTICLE ''WHO LOST HONG KONG'', PUBLISHED IN THE DECEMBER 1990 EDITION OF THE US PUBLICATION ''COMMENTARY'

I 1

■

WE HAVE SO FAR HAD NO/NO PRESS ENQUIRIES AS A RESULT OF THE OBSERVER ARTICLE. IF WE RECEIVE ANY, WE WOULD PROPOSE TO DRAW ON THE FOLLOWING:

(A) NOT IN OUR VIEW CONCEIVABLE THAT, AS ARTICLE IMPLIES, CHINA COULD HAVE IGNORED THE SIGNIFICANCE OF 1997 DATE. MR VINES HIMSELF CLAIMS THAT IN 1978 CHINESE GOVERNMENT WAS REVIEWING RELATIONSHIP WITH HONG KONG. IN VIEW OF CHINESE CONSISTENT POSITION THAT HONG KONG IS PART OF CHINESE TERRITORY, DO NOT BELIEVE THAT REVIEW COULD HAVE RESULTED IN ANYTHING BUT DECISION TO RESUME EXERCISE OF ITS SOVEREIGNTY OVER HONG KONG.

(B) NOTEWORTHY THAT, IN THE CASE OF MACAO WHERE THERE IS NO LEASE, THE CHINESE HAVE INSISTED ON RESUMING EXERCISE OF SOVEREIGNTY BEFORE THE END OF THE CENTURY.

(C) ALTERNATIVE IN 1979 THEREFORE WOULD HAVE BEEN TO LET MATTERS DRIFT UNTIL THE CHINESE THEMSELVES RAISED THE ISSUE.

(D) THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN IRRESPONSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN HONG KONG WOULD STEADILY HAVE DECLINED AS 1997 APPROACHED IF NO ARRANGEMENTS WERE IN PLACE FOR THE FUTURE. WOULD HAVE BEEN THE DIFFICULTY OVER LEASES

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