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one of the DPP' problems. It has done well in the past simply by being an opposition to the KMT and has never had to come up with any policies of its own, as there was never any real chance under the old system that it would gain political power. The new elections, if it does well, will give it a significant voice that the KMT cannot ignore as it could in the past. But to develope' into a credible alternative the DPP needs to do more than present itself as the "opposition". It needs to produce a set of policies that show that it is capable, if not running Taiwan, at least of contributing sensibly to the formation of domestic policy.
8. The KMT still holds most of the cards. It has an effective political machine, and an impressive record (in terms of management of the economy) to rely on. But there are also many issues on which it has something to answer for. The deteriorating law and order situation is of growing concern, and people may now be more tempted to vote for the opposition now that such an action could be more than simply a protest vote affecting nothing. The results of the 1989 elections showed that it cannot afford to be complacent, especially if it is going for the relatively ambitious target of 25% of the seats.
The
9. Taiwan has considerable experience of elections at the sub national level. It is most unlikely that there will be widespread occurrences of ballot rigging or other sharp practises. elections will generally be fair, and there has been no significant difficulty put in the way of the opposition parties putting their message across (although there are still problems concerning the open advocacy of independence for Taiwan).
RF Wye
Far Eastern Section
Research & Analysis Dept
OAB 2/124 210
6219/6216
13 December 1991
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