TNAG-2291-FCO40-3300-Relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-Taiwan-1991 — Page 4

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23 DEC 1901

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H LI Davies

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RV Bunk MB 10/12 Mr. Deretter of (this minigte

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Far Eastern Department

18 December 1991

PS/Lord Caithness

Sir J Coles

HKD

PUS D

RAD

Chancery/Peking

Political Adviser/Hong Kong BTC Hong Kong

UKREP JLG Hong Kong

Mr Burns

TAIWAN : ELECTION PREVIEW

1.

You may be interested in the attached minute by Mr Wye summarising the significance and possible outcomes of the forthcoming National Assembly elections in Taiwan, later this week.

2. This will be the first genuine nationwide election ever held in Taiwan. The old boys elected in 1947 have finally been obliged to retire. The Opposition now have a chance to make a substantial impact. Although Mr Wye, is clear that the KMT will win, the Opposition parties combined could top the 25% mark and thus be able to block constitutional amendments. The National Assembly is not the legislature: its two main functions are to amend the Constitution and to elect the President. Elections for the legislature itself (the Legislative Yuan) are also due within the next year, before 31 Januay 1993.

3. Mr Wye highlights the Opposition's flirtation with calls for Taiwan independence. The PRC will certainly be watching the election like a hawk. As with the LegCo results in Hong Kong, the Chinese will be uncomfortable with any popular manifestation of an "anti-China" kind. We can expect to hear more huffing and puffing from Peking. Our own policy of gently and prudently expanding our contacts with Taiwan will need to take these further sensitivities into account.

1992 could be an interesting year.

4.

HDI AFU

H LI Davies

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