TNAG-2290-FCO40-3296-Relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-Macau-1991 — Page 21

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INFO PRIORITY HONG KONG

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VIETNAMESE MIGRANTS: THE WAY AHEAD.

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IN PARA 6(E) OF HONG KONG T U R, SIR D. FORD LISTS A BILATERAL AGREEMENT WITH CHINA AS ONE OF THE POLICY OPTIONS WHICH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF (AS SEEMS ALL TOO PROBABLE) A WORKABLE AGREEMENT ON IMCS PROVES UNOBTAINABLE.

2.

THE CHINESE DO NOT WANT TO INHERIT A POPULATION OF VBPS IN

CAMPS IN 1997. THEY SAY THAT IT IS UP TO US AND HONG KONG TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM BUT THEY HAVE PROBABLY BEEN DOING THEIR BEST, WITHIN LIMITS, TO DISCOURAGE COAST-HOPPERS AND LAND-CROSSERS. THEY REMAIN CONVINCED, HOWEVER, THAT THE FLOW WILL NOT CEASE UNTIL HONG KONG HAS ENDED THE POLICY OF FIRST ASYLUM. THEY FAIL TO APPRECIATE, OR AT ANY RATE UNDER-ESTIMATE, THE ADVERSE POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS OF A DECISION TO END FIRST ASYLUM, PARTICULARLY IN THE UNITED STATES, THOUGH THE ARGUMENT THAT LOSS OF SYMPATHY FOR HONG KONG IN THE US MIGHT RUB OFF ON CHINA IN

THE MFN CONTEXT MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT.

3.

AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND, I AGREE WITH SIR D. FORD THAT THE PRICE FOR GREATER CHINESE COOPERATION OVER HONG KONG'S VBP PROBLEM WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY INCLUDE THE ENDING OF FIRST ASYLUM. BUT I JUDGE THAT THE CHINESE WOULD BE VERY RELUCTANT TO TAKE ON ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE SCREENED OUT EVEN IF HONG

KONG DID CHANGE ITS POLICY OF FIRST ASYLUM. THERE WOULD BE NOTHING IN IT FOR THEM, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. ON THE CONTRARY, THEY WOULD ATTRACT A GOOD DEAL OF INTERNATIONAL OBLOQUY FOR COOPERATION ON WHAT WOULD NO DOUBT BE SEEN IN THE WEST AS AN INHUMANE POLICY.

MCLAREN.

1

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