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INFO ROUTINE UKREP BRUSSELS, JAKARTA, ACTOR
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PINHEIRO'S VISIT TO LONDON, 12 JUNE: SCENE SETTER
SUMMARY
1. GOVERNING PSD SEEM LIKELY TO WIN OCTOBER'S ELECTIONS, THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY WITH THE OVERALL PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY WHICH WOULD ENABLE THEM TO FORM A STABLE GOVERNMENT. PINHEIRO'S OWN FUTURE UNCERTAIN AFTER FOUR YEARS AS FOREIGN MINISTER, BUT PERCEIVED NEED FOR CONTINUITY BEFORE AND DURING PORTUGAL'S EC PRESIDENCY COULD WEIGH WITH CAVACO IF PSD REMAIN IN POWER. PORTUGUESE FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES REMAIN EUROPE (IN PARTICULAR COHESION) AND AFRICA ( THE GOVERNMENT ARE FLUSH WITH THEIR ANGOLA SUCCESS).
DETAIL
2. PINHEIRO'S VISIT ON 12 JUNE TAKES PLACE AS UNOFFICIAL CAMPAIGNING FOR THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS OF 6 OCTOBER BEGINS TO GET UNDER WAY. THE GOVERNING (RIGHT-WING) SOCIAL DEMOCRATS (PSD) ARE COMFORTABLY AHEAD OF THE MAIN OPPOSITION SOCIALIST PARTY (PS) IN THE OPINION POLLS, BUT IT IS NOT YET CLEAR WHETHER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO RETAIN THE OVERALL PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY WHICH THEY WON IN JULY 1987. IF THEY DO NOT, BAD BLOOD BETWEEN PRIME MINISTER CAVACO SILVA AND THE LEADER OF THE PSD'S NATURAL CENTRE (CHRISTIAN) DEMOCRAT ALLIES MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THEM TO SECURE THE SUPPORT NECESSAY FOR A VIABLE MINORITY GOVERNMENT.
3. PINHEIRO'S OWN POSITION IN ANY FUTURE PSD GOVERNMENT IS BY NO MEANS SECURE. HE IS CONSTANTLY CRITICISED IN THE PRESS FOR HIS TENDENCY TO SHOOT FROM THE HIP, HIS UNDOUBTED VANITY AND HIS ABILITY TO BE IN THE WRONG PLACE AT THE WRONG TIME. IN RECENT MONTHS IN PARTICULAR HE HAS BEEN OVERSHADOWED BY HIS YOUNG DEPUTY DURAO BARROSO, WHO WITH THE PRIME MINISTER'S POLITICAL PATRONAGE HAS LED PORTUGAL'S SUCCESSFUL MEDIATION OF THE ANGOLAN CONFLICT. OTHER HAND, CAVACO WILL BE ARGUING THIS OCTOBER THAT THE PORTUGUESE WOULD BE UNWISE TO CHANGE THEIR GOVERNMENT ON THE EVE OF THEIR EC PRESIDENCY, AND HE MAY WELL PREFER TO KEEP PINHEIRO IN HIS CURRENT POSITION AT LEAST UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT YEAR. IN ANY EVENT,
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