TNAG-2277-FCO40-3276-Hong-Kong-and-the-media-1991 — Page 28

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Chinese authorities (barring a complete change of administration in Peking) are unlikely to be more sympathetic to the station at some future date than they are now. I conclude therefore that raising the future of the station with the Chinese authorities at any time between now and 1997 is unlikely to result in assurances about the continued operation of the station, and that its chances of survival are slim.

5.

If this is right, we shall have to act soon. It takes several years to set up a new relay station, and we shall have to discuss the problem with the BBC. Coincidentally, the BBC are developing plans for a new relay station in Thailand, to serve the Indian sub-continent. If the Thais are prepared to allow the BBC to go ahead, and the signs are moderately encouraging, we could add to the proposed station the capability to serve the same areas as the Hong Kong station. There would be cost implications and the project might be politically more difficult for the Thais than a station serving only the Indian sub-continent. If we want the BBC to extend the proposed Thai station in this way, we shall have to tell them soon, before their negotiations with the Thais get too far down the track.

6. We should very much like to have your thoughts on all of this, and those of the other recipients of this letter. I realise that this will require some crystal ball gazing and that the ball is distinctly cloudy. I should like to pose six questions:

i what is the likelihood of the Chinese allowing the

station to continue operating after June 1997 ?

ii if there is a chance, when should we or the BBC

approach the Chinese for a new lease and broadcasting licence ?

iii would the Hong Kong authorities be prepared to extend the present lease and licence to, say, 2010 or 2015 ?

iv if this were done, how would the Chinese react ?

v how much weight do you think that international

condemnation would carry if the Chinese decided to close down the station after June 1997 assuming that the present lease and licence had by then been extended ?

ADMAAN

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