TNAG-2244-FCO40-3225-Most-favoured-nation-status-for-China-impact-on-Hong-Kong-1991 — Page 233

CONFIDENTIAL

1210

MDHI 3242

LEGISLATION IS NOT CLEAR. THE HOUSE IS EXPECTED TO CONSIDER HR2212 ON 10 JULY (IE IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE 4 JULY CONGRESSIONAL RECESS). THE SENATE MIGHT DEBATE S1367 SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BUT, THE FAILURE OF THE DRAFT BILL TO SECURE ANY REPUBLICAN SUPPORT IN THE FINANCE COMMITTEE MAY MEAN THAT MITCHELL WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY, IN THE HOPE OF WINNING OVER SOME OF THE WAVERERS IN THE SENATE, GIVEN THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS ALREADY THREATENED TO VETO, MITCHELL WILL WANT TO SECURE AT LEAST TWO-THIRDS SUPPORT IN THE SENATE TO SHOW THAT HE HAS A CHANCE OF OVERRIDE.

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IN THE LIGHT OF THE ABOVE, I RECOMMEND THAT THE INSPIRED PQ (THE TEXT OF WHICH SEEMS FINE, AS AMENDED BY HONG KONG TELNO 2047) BE TABLED DURING THE WEEK BEGINNING 1 JULY. WE CAN THEN USE IT WITH KEY CONGRESSMEN AND SENATORS IN THE RUN UP TO THE HOUSE AND SENATE DEBATES. AS REGARDS TARGETING, I HAD A TALK YESTERDAY WITH SENATOR CHAFFEE (WHO SUPPORTS THE PRESIDENT'S NO-CONDITIONS POLICY). HE HAS PROMISED TO LET ME HAVE THE LATEST ASSESSMENT FROM THE WHIPS OFFICE OF WHICH SENATORS ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT OR OPPOSE CONDITIONALITY AND THOSE WHO REMAIN UNDECIDED. I WILL ALSO HAVE ANOTHER WORD WITH SUNUNU BEFORE DECIDING ON THE EXACT RECIPIENTS OF THE PRIME MINISTER'S STATEMENT.

ACLAND

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DISTRIBUTION

71

ΜΑΙΝ

71

LIMITED

RAD

HKD

FED

PS

NAD

ERD

JOINT DIRECTORATE

NEWS D

PS/LORD CAITHNESS

PS/PUS

SIR J COLES

EAPD/ODA

MR BAYNE

ECONOMIC ADVISERS

MR MILES

ESAU

MR BURNS

ESED

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