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006402
MDHIAN 2678
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FM WASHINGTON
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 1726
OF 25233OZ JUNE 91
INFO IMMEDIATE UKMIS NEW YORK, BIS NEW YORK
INFO ROUTINE OTTAWA, BONN, PARIS, MOSCOW, UKDEL NATO
INFO ROUTINE UKREP BRUSSELS, TOKYO, MEXICO CITY, HM TREASURY INFO SAVING ATLANTA, BOSTON, CHICAGO, CLEVELAND, DALLAS
INFO SAVING HOUSTON, MIAMI, LOS ANGELES, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE
THE US DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE
SUMMARY
1. US POLITICAL SCENE RELATIVELY QUIET, OWING PARTLY TO THE LIMITS WHICH LAST YEAR'S BUDGET AGREEMENT PLACES ON DOMESTIC INITIATIVES. SIGNS OF THE WHITE HOUSE STARTING TO PREPARE FOR THE 1992 CAMPAIGN.
2"
IS
THE RECESSION SEEMS TO BE BOTTOMING OUT, ALTHOUGH UNEMPLOYMENT STILL HIGH. ROWS OVER SUNUNU'S TRAVEL, AND BETWEEN ROBB AND WILDER. DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL FIELD STARTING BELATEDLY TO EMERGE, BUT THE ECONOMY AND ELECTORAL COLLEGE ARE UNLIKELY TO HELP THE PARTY WIN THE WHITE HOUSE.
DETAIL
3. YOU MAY FIND IT USEFUL TO HAVE A SNAPSHOT OF THE US POLITICAL SCENE ON THE EVE OF THE FOURTH OF JULY RECESS, AND THE VISIT TO LONDON OF THE US DELEGATION, LED BY SPEAKER FOLEY AND SENATOR BYRD, FOR THE 50TH ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATIONS OF THE BRITISH-AMERICAN PARLIAMENTARY GROUP.
4.
OVERALL, THE POLITICAL SCENE HERE IS RELATIVELY QUIET: NO ONE ISSUE, OR SET OF ISSUES, DOMINATES DEBATE, AND WHAT CONTROVERSY THERE IS CONCERNS PERSONALITIES AS MUCH AS POLICIES. ONE REASON FOR THIS IS LAST YEAR'S BIPARTISAN BUDGET AGREEMENT SEVERELY LIMITING THE SCOPE FOR DOMESTIC POLICY INITIATIVES: ANOTHER IS THAT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE NO AGREED PROGRAMME TO PURSUE.
THE PRESIDENT
5.
PRESIDENT BUSH'S APPROVAL RATING
SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW 70S
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