CONFIDENTIAL
HMG's action in support of renewal
5. HMG are supporting the renewal of China's MFN through high-level contacts with the US Administration and selective
lobbying. The Prime Minister and President Bush have
discussed the issue, and the President has sought our help in ensuring renewal. The Secretary of State has sent messages to Secretary Baker and others supporting renewal. Sir A Acland and the Hong Kong Government have been lobbying Congress and the Senate. The Prime Minister has agreed to make a public statement on HMG's position on renewal of China's MFN in the near future (in answer to an inspired
PQ). We would like HMA Washington to pass copies to key
Senators.
US legislative action
6.
A vote in Congress is expected in first half of July and
a Senate vote some time between 4 July Holiday and the start of the Summer Recess on 5 August. Assuming that either Congress or Senate will seek to reverse the President's decision, they will need to put up their own draft legislation. The President would presumably use his veto against that legislation and an override of his veto would then have to be sought in both House and Senate by further
vote. At this point the President would need to muster a
two-thirds majority to win, and importantly in the case of
the Senate he would need a minimum of 34 votes. The whole of this process is expected to take until September.
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