RESTRICTED
062734
MDHIAN 79
ATTRACT WIDE SUPPORT IN THE HOUSE. THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO THE SENATE WHICH IS DUE TO DEBATE ITS CONDITIONALITY BILL NEXT WEEK (OR, MORE LIKELY, THE WEEK AFTER). THEREAFTER BOTH THE SENATE AND HOUSE VERSIONS WILL NEED TO BE RECONCILED AT A SENATE/HOUSE
CONFERENCE BEFORE AN AGREED VERSION IS SENT TO THE PRESIDENT.
5.
OUR ADMINISTRATION CONTACTS HAVE TOLD US THAT THEY TOOK SOME COMFORT FROM THE HOUSE VOTE (WHICH WAS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S POSITION THAN LAST YEAR'S), BUT THEY EMPHASISED THAT THERE WAS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO. MOHR (STATE DEPT) TOLD US THE AMERICANS WERE LEANING HEAVILY ON THE CHINESE TO TRY TO GET THEM TO MAKE A GESTURE TO IMPROVE THEIR IMAGINE IN CONGRESS, PARTICULARLY ON SIGNING THE NPT (PATTISON'S TELELETTER OF 2 JULY). NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS A GROWING FEELING IN THE PRESS AND ON THE HILL THAT THE ADMINISTRATION'S POSITION IS SLOWLY GAINING GROUND IN THE SENATE, AND THAT THEY WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH VOTES TO SUSTAIN A PRESIDENTIAL VETO. THE ADMINISTRATION HAS, FOR EXAMPLE, RECEIVED AN UNEXPECTED BOOST FROM SENATOR BAUCUS, AND FIVE OTHER DEMOCRATS, WHO HAVE WRITTEN TO THE PRESIDENT INDICATING THEY MIGHT BE PREPARED TO SUPPORT HIM ON MFN, IF THE ADMINISTRATION CAN FIND OTHER, MORE APPROPRIATE WAYS OF ADDRESSING CONGRESS'S CONCERNS ABOUT CHINA'S HUMAN RIGHTS AND TRADE PRACTICES.
ACLAND
YYYY
MAIN
LIMITED
FED
70
DISTRIBUTION
70
NEWS D RAD
EAPD/ODA
PS
ECONOMIC ADVISERS
ERD
PS/LORD CAITHNESS PS/PUS
ESAU
SIR J COLES
ESED
MR BAYNE
HKD
MR MILES
JOINT DIRECTORATE
MR BURNS
NAD
2
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