RESTRICTED
Mars 090/4
25
no
187
117112
MDHIAN 6543
RESTRICTED
FM WASHINGTON
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 1935
OF 24014OZ JULY 91
INFO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG, PEKING
TOP COPY Q DIST?
US/CHINA:MFN
SUMMARY
1. IMPORTANT SUCCESS FOR THE ADMINISTRATION IN SENATE MFN VOTE.
DETAIL
2. AT THE END OF THE SENATE DEBATE ON 23 JULY THE MITCHELL BILL SETTING CONDITIONS FOR MFN RENEWAL IN 1992 WAS ADOPTED 55-44 CONE MEMBER WAS ILL AND DID NOT VOTE). THE BILL NOW HAS TO BE RECONCILED WITH THE HOUSE VERSION AT A SENATE/HOUSE CONFERENCE BEFORE BEING SUBMITTED TO THE PRESIDENT, WHO IS EXPECTED TO VETO IT. BECAUSE OF THE SUMMER RECESS THIS MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL SEPTEMBER.
COMMENT
3. THE SENATE WAS ALWAYS EXPECTED TO APPROVE THE BILL: THE ONLY
QUESTION WAS BY HOW MUCH. THE FIGURE OFF 44 AGAINST WAS MORE THAN THE ADMINISTRATION EXPECTED, AND WELL ABOVE THAT REQUIRED (34) TO SUSTAIN A PRESIDENTIAL VETO. IT REPRESENTS AN IMPORTANT SUCCESS FOR
THE ADMINISTRATION AFTER INTENSE LOBBYING OF SENATORS IN THE RUN UP TO THE VOTE. BARRING DAMAGING NEW REVELATIONS ABOUT CHINA BETWEEN NOW AND THE VETO FIGHT, THE PRESIDENT'S MFN FOR CHINA POLICY LOOKS SECURE FOR ANOTHER YEAR.
4. WE WILL REPORT MORE FULLY ONCE WE HAVE DETAILS OF HOW INDIVIDUAL
SENATORS VOTED.
MEYER
YYYY
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