G.F. 324
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G
some Chinese
goods
passing
through Hong Kong in transit
be affected.
thooo
which are not shown in Hong Kong's trade figures would also
Applying a probably conservative multiplier
of, say, 1.8* to the minimum 1༠ss to account
related impacts, the combined loss would amount to HK$7-10
billion (US$0.9-1.2 billion) or 1.3% to 1.8% of the overall
GDP.
The loss in employment would be in the range of
༢༡ ༡༩༠
4༣ 000
12.
While the 108s in GDP may appear small in
percentage terms it has to be seen against the trend grouth rate of the economy, which is projecteA to he ང
per
annum over the medium term. Hence the direct impact would
be
to curtail this growth rate by as much as one-quarter to one-third in the initial year. In the subsequent years,
the adverse impact on the GDP growth rate is expected to lessen as the shock filters through. But as the growth
rate of re-exports from China to the United States i a unlikely
be as fast as previously in the absence of the
MFN status for China, some negative effect would still
to
nersist
(B)
Indirect impacts
13.
Removal of China's MFN status by the United
States would almost certainly damage the trade relations
between the two countries. In consequence. China would probably cut back on its imports from the United States.
In 1990, Hong Kong's re-exports of US origin to China amounted to HK$10.3 billion (US$1. ༣ hillionl comparison, this is about one-eighth of the value of Hong
Kong's re-exports of China origin to the liniton Starac
RV
(*) Of the additional impact represented by the factor of
0.8,
0. 3 is assumed to be attributed to (a) and (c), and 0.5 to (b). These assumed figures are broadly in line with anecdotal information derived from the relevant economic surveys.
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