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INFO ROUTINE HONG KONG, PEKING, ACTOR
Hk3 090/4 fa
- 3 APR -1991
016300
MDHIAN 9321
-3 AOP COPY
Q DIST?
q
US/CHINA: MFN DEBATE
SUMMARY
1. PRESIDENT LIKELY TO RECOMMEND CONTINUATION OF MFN FOR CHINA, BUT ADMINISTRATION UNDECIDED ON TACTICS. PRESIDENTIAL DETERMINATION REQUIRED BY BEGINNING OF JUNE. LIKELY TO BE CHALLENGED BY CONGRESS. TOO SOON TO JUDGE EXACTLY HOW THE DEBATE WILL GO, BUT ADMINISTRATION COULD HAVE A ROUGH RIDE. DETAIL
2. WE UNDERSTAND (TELECON PATTISON/FURNESS HKD) THAT YOU WOULD LIKE SOME INDICATION OF THE TIMETABLE OF THIS YEAR'S MFN DEBATE. THE JACKSON VANIK WAIVER FOR CHINA WILL EXPIRE ON 3 JULY UNLESS RENEWED. STATE ARE EXPECTING THE PRESIDENT TO CERTIFY RENEWAL AROUND THE END OF MAY. THEREAFTER CONGRESS HAS UNTIL 31 AUGUST TO CHALLENGE THE PRESIDENT'S RECOMMENDATION. 3. THE CONGRESSIONAL DEBATE HAS NOT YET BEGUN. WE UNDERSTAND A FIRST HEARING IS SCHEDULED FOR THE END OF APRIL. OUR CONTACTS ON THE HILL EXPECT THE ADMINISTRATION TO GET A ROUGH RIDE. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE CONCERN ABOUT CHINA'S HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD, THE US/CHINA TRADE DEFICIT AND CHINA'S RECORD ON NON-PROLIFERATION. FURTHERMORE, SOME ARGUE THAT THE ADMINISTRATION ITSELF HAS BECOME DISENCHANTED WITH CHINA, WHICH MIGHT ENCOURAGE MORE CONGRESSMEN TO JOIN CHINA'S CRITICS.
THE ADMINISTRATION IS STILL CONSIDERING ITS TACTICS. OPTIONS ARE TO TOUGH IT OUT (AS LAST YEAR), OR TO PROPOSE RENEWAL OF MFN WITH SOME NON-BINDING CONDITIONS FOR 1992 OR TO TRY TO WORK WITH CONGRESSIONAL BILLS EXPECTED TO BE INTRODUCED SOON SEEKING TO ATTACH CONDITIONS FOR RENEWAL. THE ADMINISTRATION FEAR THAT THESE BILLS ARE LIKELY TO ATTRACT MORE SUPPORT THAN A STRAIGHTFORWARD ATTEMPT TO CHALLENGE THE PRESIDENT'S RULING ON JACKSON VANIK. 5. IT IS HARD TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHEN THE CONTEST WILL CLIMAX. THE VOTE ON THE JACKSON VANIK WAIVER WILL NEED TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE AUGUST RECESS (SCHEDULED BETWEEN 5 AUGUST AND 10 SEPTEMBER). BUT, IF NECESSARY, THE PRESIDENT IS LIKELY TO VETO IT, RESULTING IN FURTHER DEBATE WHEN CONGRESS RESUMES IN SEPTEMBER. FEW, HOWEVER, BELIEVE THAT CONGRESS COULD MUSTER THE TWO THIRDS
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