TNAG-2240-FCO40-3219-Future-of-Hong-Kong-Royal-Navy-presence-1991 — Page 174

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CONFIDENTIAL

Redacted Under FOI Exemption Sec 27(1)

10. A staged withdrawal of the garrison will need careful handling with the Chinese but should not be to the detriment of Hong Kong's defence. As the 1991 review suggested, the timings of the withdrawals will be based on an assessment of the ability of the

Hong Kong security forces to take over the duties it currently

performs. Withdrawal times are therefore flexible and will be decided in future reviews in the light of prevailing circumstances.

11.

The proposed withdrawal of the RN presence in Hong Kong next year, however, may have serious repercussions for HMG and the Hong

Kong Government, and also implications for our relations with China.

Withdrawal of the patrol craft would be interpreted in Hong Kong as

a weakening of HMG's commitment to the territory with a consequent

effect on confidence. The Chinese themselves may consider that our

withdrawal

and

is an attempt to undermine the rationale for their own naval

presence after 1997. The firm view of both the HKG and Commander

British Forces Hong Kong (CBFHK) is that a military need for the

patrol craft will remain until 1997, in helping to combat smuggling

and dealing with encroachments by Chinese patrol vessels.

12.

The issue of the withdrawal of the patrol craft remains

deadlocked between the FCO, MOD and the Hong Kong Government. The

Governor considers that the MOD's alternative proposal that Hong

Kong meet a much higher share of the operating costs would create a

damaging political row in Hong Kong and reopen the whole Defence

Costs Agreement (DCA) controversy, under which Hong Kong pays 65%

of the costs of the Garrison. Nor, in his view, would the idea of the HKG buying out the MOD's capital interest in the craft and operating them themselves, be acceptable on both financial and practical grounds.

13. In Belize (Serial 3) we share with the MOD the ultimate

objective of full withdrawal of the British garrison, and preferably sooner rather than later. However, given our undertakings to successive Belizean Prime Ministers that the