CONFIDENTIAL
13. The Armilla Patrol (Serial 10), is a
commitment likely to be affected by the outcome of
the tug of war between the MOD and the Treasury
about whether the Royal Navy should be fixed at 38
or 35 ships. We are content for planning to
proceed on the basis of a two-vessel operation in
1992. Present and future commitments generally in
the Gulf Region are of course the subject of
current interdepartmental discussion in the wake
of the war. There is a danger that overall
expectations in the region may exceed our ability
to respond accordingly.
There is also a danger
that the MOD may find itself unable to follow
through with the political commitment to enhance
the UK's defence relations with the countries of
the Gulf.
14. In Belize (Serial 3) we share with the MOD
the ultimate objective of full withdrawal of the
British garrison and preferably sooner rather
than later. However given our undertakings to
successive Belizian Prime Ministers that the
garrison will not be withdrawn in circumstances
which would create instability, FCO Ministers have
said that we cannot withdraw the garrison until
after a negotiated settlement of the dispute
between Belize and Guatemala.
15. The good progress made in 1989 and 1990
towards a settlement has been stalled since the
change of government in Guatemala in January 1991.
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.