SECRET UK EYES A LOCSEN
Chinese meddling, is declining as the handover approaches. It also raises fears of direct interference from Beijing after 1997.
Developments in China
4.
The people of Hong Kong would probably not be too concerned about a conservative regime in Beijing as long as it promised a reasonable degree of stability, modest but sustainable economic growth, and did not engage in overt brutality. However, at some time between now and 1997, the current power struggle in China is likely to intensify. The closer to 1997 this happens, the less time Hong Kong will have to come to terms with the new regime. The impact will be more marked if the struggle is accompanied by popular demonstrations in China; and would be compounded if these were violently suppressed, as in June 1989. Also, in the event of political and/or economic turmoil in China, mass migration from the southern coastal provinces into Hong Kong
could occur. This would quickly dislocate the territory, threatening
social and economic cohesion.
Economic Factors
5. Continued economic growth is essential to underpin stability and
public order in Hong Kong,
Kong, themselves pre-requisites for economic
success. To date, business confidence has remained reasonably
buoyant. This partly reflects a belief that Beijing has a strong interest in Hong Kong's continued prosperity. However, confidence has not yet been severely tested: there is still time to make money in Hong Kong and move it out before a crisis point is reached.
6.
Economic prosperity depends on
on a number of factors. Some are outside Hong Kong's control, for example the territory is vulnerable
to fluctuations in world trade.
A-2
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UK EYES A
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