TNAG-2239-FCO40-3218-Future-of-Hong-Kong-Royal-Navy-presence-1991 — Page 239

SECRET UK EYES A LOCSEN

b. The expansion plan of the RHKP is the subject of some concern in terms of morale, recruiting and retention and

therefore overall capability in the years to come. (paragraph

39).

c. The result of the political changes since the last review,

coupled with concerns

concerns over the RHKP, highlight the need for extreme flexibility in planning based on decisions being "event-

led" rather than set in

in concrete at a stage too early to

appreciate cause and effect. (paragraph 59).

111. Withdrawal of First Gurkha Battalion. HQ BFHK is confident that

the first Gurkha battalion will be able to be withdrawn in 1992, as

currently planned. (paragraph 85).

A decision on the

112. Withdrawal of Second Gurkha Battalion.

withdrawal of the second Gurkha battalion should not be made until the

latter half of 1993, at the earliest; and is predicated on the RHKP

successfully proving that they can effectively maintain responsibility

for the land border and are in a position to take on other Garrison contingency tasks. It is probable therefore that the battalion itself will not be able to withdraw before the beginning of 1995. (paragraph

78).

113. Withdrawal of the Third Battalion. The minimum credible force

that would be capable of acting in support of the HKG during the final part of the run-down is assessed as two battalions with a commensurate level of combat support. The third battalion cannot therefore withdraw before late 1996/early 1997. However, in view of continually changing circumstances this should be reassessed in the 1995 Biennial

Review. (paragraph 79).

114. Ending of Accompanied Service. Accompanied service in Hong Kong

should end in January 1997, with some services provided for families,

such as secondary schooling, ending in July 1996 to take account of

Page 43 of 47 pages

LOCSEN

UK EYES A SECRET