TNAG-2239-FCO40-3218-Future-of-Hong-Kong-Royal-Navy-presence-1991 — Page 214

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47.

The

The careers of LEPS and LECS will end by early 1997 at the very

latest. At least some of them believe that, by virtue of their direct military service to the sovereign colonial power as opposed, for

example, to the RHKP whose loyalties will

will transfer to the SAR

Government they could be particularly vulnerable after the handover

if events in China and Hong Kong take an adverse turn.

Nationality Package has offered British passports to roughly 1 in 7 of the LEPS and effectively nothing to the LECS. Morale amongst the LEPS remains generally high at the moment but the closer 1997 draws near, the more difficult are the problems of retention likely to

become, with the danger of outflow exceeding the rundown rate

required. Even now there is some evidence of reducing LEC morale, resulting from recent budgetary-driven reductions, disappointment with

the Nationality Package and very limited career prospects; there are

already retention and recruitment problems in certain grades. However, for planning purposes it should be assumed that such factors as good and sympathetic management and the prospect of financial packages on pay, terminal and other benefits will succeed in retaining the numbers of both LEPS and LECS required. These measures may

require Treasury approval. The alternative would be costly

reinforcements from the UK and the possibility that this might be required in the event of a very substantial outflow of local personnel

must be borne in mind.

48.

Local manpower requirements have been forecast in detail in the

HQ BFHK review of Army Supporting Arms and Services Paper (3). This

shows that for the Army element, which is by far the largest, there

is a significant shortfall

shortfall between the numbers required and the

provision contained in the LTC, especially in the later years. If

this shortfall is not made good, or overcome by individual

reinforcements from the UK, operational

administrative

effectiveness will inevitably suffer.

(3)

HK 10011 J3 Ops dtd 2 May 91.

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