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intervention might be offset by a rapid show of commitment to restore
order.
30. Should the Chinese leadership judge that the internal situation
in Hong Kong has deteriorated to a point where vital Chinese interests
were at stake, direct Chinese military intervention cannot be ruled
out. There is no doubt that China has the military capability to
overwhelm Hong Kong with little warning. However, a serious incursion
is assessed to be most unlikely. It would be against China's
interests and would only occur in extreme circumstances: for example,
an irretrievable breakdown of law and order in Hong Kong; widespread
and prolonged support in the territory for anti-government agitation
in China;
if elements in Hong Kong tried to undermine the
implementation of the Joint Declaration.
or
PLANNING FACTORS
31. Unforeseen events in both Hong Kong and the PRC over the past 2
years have highlighted the need to keep certain planning factors in
sharp focus during the period leading up
up to 1997. important factors are discussed in detail below. They have not been
listed in a particular order of priority.
The 10 most
Preservation of Confidence.
32. Since the massacre of June 1989, Chinese attitudes have loomed
large in the thoughts of both the Hong Kong Government and the population. Confidence in the future is vital in order to preserve Hong Kong's stability and prosperity; and although the Territory has
shown remarkable resilience since 1989, confidence will become
increasingly vulnerable to Chinese attitudes as 1997 approaches.
33.
At the day to day practical level, Chinese actions, for example
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