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152522
MDH N 1254
HONG KONG IS NECESSARY, BOTH TO ACT AS AN EFFECTIVE DETERRENT AGAINST CHINESE MARITIME INCURSIONS AND TO PROVIDE AN APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF BACK-UP FOR OUR OWN SECURITY FORCES. MY MILITARY ADVISERS HERE ARE IN NO DOUBT AS TO THE MILITARY NEED TO RETAIN THE PATROL CRAFT AFTER 1992 IF WE ARE TO HAVE ADEQUATE CONTROL OVER OUR OWN SEA AREA. WE SHOULD BE UNDER NO ILLUSIONS ABOUT THE EFFECT OF WITHDRAWING THE PATROL CRAFT. THERE WOULD BE INCREASED INCURSIONS BY CHINESE PATROL VESSELS. THESE WOULD RECEIVE WIDESPREAD PUBLICITY IN HONG KONG, AND WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF DECREASING THE WILL AND EFFECTIVENESS OF OUR OWN SECURITY FORCES TO DEAL WITH THEM.
6. WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SECURE FINANCE COMMITTEE SUPPORT FOR THE VERY SUBSTANTIAL ANNUAL EXPENDITURE ON THE DCA (THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT'S SHARE CURRENTLY RUNS AT 130 MILLION POUNDS PER ANNUM) LARGELY THROUGH DEPLOYING THE ARGUMENT THAT THE 1988 DCA IS AN ARRANGEMENT BETWEEN THE HONG KONG AND BRITISH GOVERNMENTS WHICH CANNOT EASILY BE ALTERED. ALTERING THE 65:35 RATIO WILL LEAD TO CALLS TO RENEW THE BASIS AND SCOPE OF THE 1988 AGREEMENT.
7.
IN THE NEWLY ELECTED LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL, A NUMBER OF MEMBERS WOULD WELCOME THE OPPORTUNITY THAT A DEBATE ON THE DCA WOULD PROVIDE TO EMBARRASS HMG AND THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT. SOME MIGHT ALSO PROPOSE THAT THE EXPENDITURE EARMARKED FOR THE GARRISON SHOULD BE SPENT ON SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT OR ON OTHER PROJECTS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE OF HONG KONG. I CANNOT GUARANTEE THAT IN SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES WE WOULD BE ABLE TO COMMAND SUFFICIENT SUPPORT TO ENSURE THAT THE PRESENT DCA COST SHARING ARRANGEMENT DID NOT START TO UNRAVEL. EVEN LESS COULD I LOOK WITH ANY CONFIDENCE TO THE POST-ELECTION FINANCE COMMITTEE AGREEING TO PAY A LARGER SHARE OF THE COST OF THE PATROL CRAFT THAN PROVIDED FOR IN THE DCA.
8. THE OTHER DIMENSION THAT WE NEED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT IS CHINA. I BELIEVE THE CHINESE EXPECT HMG TO RETAIN A ROYAL NAVAL PRESENCE IN HONG KONG UP TO 1997, AND THAT THEY WILL BE GREATLY CONCERNED IF THIS TURNS OUT NOT TO BE THE CASE. IN ADDITION TO THIS, TO LOSE THE PATROL CRAFT WOULD NEGATE THE PURPOSE OF THE WORK THAT WE ARE ABOUT TO START ON RE-PROVISIONING ROYAL NAVAL FACILITIES ON STONECUTTERS ISLAND. THIS IS OF COURSE CONNECTED WITH OUR ANNOUNCED INTENTION TO RECLAIM THE HMS TAMAR BASIN FOR DEVELOPMENT PURPOSES. UNRAVELLING ALL THIS WOULD LEAD US INTO YET MORE DIFFICULTIES WITH THE CHINESE OVER DEFENCE LANDS.
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