TNAG-2237-FCO40-3216-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1991 — Page 95

SECRET

UK EYES A

UK will have interest in promoting stability by exploiting the Commonwealth links, supporting extant Defence Agreements and encouraging ASEAN, all activities which have predominantly low-key military connotations.

19. SW Asia.

Developments within Islam are likely to provide a major force in SW Asia. This theme will be developed in an area given to abiding communal tensions, regional rivalries and border disputes, and endemic poverty in those countries not well-endowed with oil. In the absence of comprehensive control agreements there will also be increasing regional CBW and nuclear capabilities (13) (14). Thus, stability is liable

to be a fragile commodity in an area of prime strategic importance to the UK and to the West. This importance will continue to extend to the Indian Ocean, both as the main

commercial highway to and from the Gulf and as a means of bringing Western maritime power to bear in that area. The BIOT will remain under UK sovereignty as long as it is required for defence purposes (the agreement with the US runs to 2016, with a possible extension to 2036).

? Do these lich de

DCAS?

20. The Mediterranean. There will be continuing potential

for large-scale instability in the states bordering the

Mediterranean's southern and eastern shores. The various

combinations of political volatility, religious fanaticism, rapid population growth not matched by economic development and land-hunger are conducive to violence throughout the region. Such feuds are liable to be exported and there will

be risks of involvement both for EC nations and for the

superpowers. Terrorism will be endemic. It is possible that missile proliferation may create capabilities for direct attack on Gibraltar, Cyprus, NATO and EC nations, and conceivably even on the UK itself (15). Although no country in the region except Israel is likely to have acquired an

13 JIC (89) 4

Chemical and Biological Warfare Capability

Proliferation in the Third World.

14JIC (89) 3- Nuclear Weapons Proliferation.

15 JIC(88) 16 - Ballistic Missile Proliferation in the Third

World.

anb.2s1

B-11

UK EYES A SECRET