SECRET UK EYES A
security in the Pacific Basin. To this end, she will encourage strong economic ties with most Asian nations, including China, though these nations will continue to regard her with suspicion and fear (12). She will remain heavily dependent on the Gulf for her energy supplies, and so long as Japan is willing to continue to provide other non-military contributions to burden sharing, it would be preferable for the West to maintain their protection of Japanese distant interests, rather than risk domestic pressures arising within Japan to extend her military capability. China and India both have great economic and industrial leeway to make up and are likely to be absorbed with internal developments to the exclusion of all but regional military aspirations, though these will be significant. The UK's relations with China are likely to depend considerably on the nature of the transfer of power in Hong Kong. A significant international factor will be her ability to export modern weapons systems, including BM, which could enable her to make mischief by proxy. India will probably continue to seek to dominate the Indian Ocean and the areas immediately along her borders, and has demonstrated a readiness to deploy forces to defend what she sees as her interests, including those of peoples whom she regards as ethnic kin. However, any adverse effect on British interests seems more likely to be the consequence of Indian action against a third party, such as Nepal, or as support for Mauritius' claim on the BIOT, rather than of direct hostility.
The
13. The EC. The EC single market will be in existence. Single European Act provides only for consideration of security matters, but a European economic and trading bloc is likely to be regarded as an entity by outside nations, and it will become increasingly difficult for members of it to isolate themselves from their partners' problems in matters such as access to energy supplies. Thus, EC nations may well
find that they have common security interests 00A. France will probably retain considerable interests in her ex-colonies
12
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JIC (91) WSI 23 Japan:
anb.2s1
A More Assertive Foreign Policy?
B-8
UK EYES A
SECRET
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