SECRET
UK EYES A
Details are at Appendix 5.
growth-rate over the period. exports will remain an area of activity where military and commercial interests can be both complementary and
conflicting.
In
Such
They are beneficial in that they help to sustain a national manufacturing base, the profits from them can be balanced to some degree against the costs of the UK's own defence equipment programme, and they may enable the British Armed Forces to take advantage of economies of scale. return, the Armed Forces may assist sales both directly, through attaches and support teams, and indirectly by enhancing the image of British products. On the other hand, intense international competition can put pressure on developing nations to buy equipment they neither need nor can afford, thus jeopardizing stability, while proliferation of advanced systems complicates the operational problem OOA, reduces the ability of the developed nations to act as arbiters in the Third World and will render some of them
increasingly vulnerable to direct attack from it.
THE INTERNATIONAL BACKGROUND
10. The Soviet Union. The evolving Soviet Union will remain, even after arms reductions, the biggest military power on the European land-mass, and perceived change within it will to a large extent be the determinant of change in Western European military policies and postures. The Union government is likely to be highly cautious in the projection of military power beyond its borders, but it will continue to seek political and commercial influence internationally. In this it is to some extent favoured by geography, since the Soviet Union's position enables it to operate both as an Asian and as a European power. Any residual Soviet military presence 00A is likely to be predominantly naval, with no capability for sustained combat at extended ranges from its territory (°)
11.
The USA. The USA will remain both an economic and a
military superpower with worldwide interests. Its military
I
8JIC(88) (N) 63
-
The Soviet Threat to UK 00A Interests.
anb.2s1
B-6
UK EYES A
SECRET
Page 90Page 91
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.