SECRET UK EYES A
be extant, together with the governmental letters offering defensive military assistance to the UAE and Oman. In the latter, and in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, any UK loan-service personnel will continue to support local forces in defensive operations when necessary. In Africa the secret Bamburi
Understanding of 1967 with Kenya was reached in terms of a Somali threat only and is unlikely to be invoked (7). To the West, the UK maintains a defensive commitment to against an external threat from Guatemala.
UK ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS
6.
Belize
Food and Energy. The UK can obtain most of the basic
food-stuffs either from home-production or from NATO allies, the only major exception being sugar. However, this overall self-sufficiency is dependent upon modern intensive methods of agriculture, which in turn depend on supplies from industry which require energy for their manufacture. In terms of oil the UK may well, because of the composition of British crude, be a net importer and this proportion will increase as British production declines. The DEn estimates that at current rates UK reserves will run out around 2015 (Appendix 3). Most British oil imports are taken from the Gulf area, while the NATO nations of Europe depend upon it for some 30% of their requirement. With about two thirds of the non-Communist world's known reserves and low production costs, this region is likely to grow in strategic significance to the UK.
Strategic Minerals. The DTI defines as strategic those
minerals which are both essential to vital sectors of the
economy and not produced to any great extent in the UK. A list showing such minerals, together with the degree to which the UK is dependent upon other nations for their supply and the sources of supply, is at Appendix 4. The figures may vary slightly from time to time, but the general pattern is expected to hold good. of these minerals the DTI consider 3 to be most critical to British industry and vulnerable to
7CDS 38/88
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OOA Strategy Review.
anb.2s1
B-4
UK EYES A SECRET
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