5 1 4
SECRET UK EYES A
boom in Mexico, which, providing it can be managed by the authorities, may well influence future spending levels throughout government, including defence. Democracy has been introduced to Panama and Nicaragua, where the long standing civil war has ended, and in El Salvador parties of the left are represented in the National Assembly for the first time. The peace talks with the guerillas could produce a ceasefire within the next few months, thus ending a civil war which has cost 75,000 lives. Guatemala and Belize have made historic strides in moving towards reconciliation of long held differences: Belize's independence has now been recognised by Guatemala and diplomatic relations have been established. Although it is not clear how the dispute will finally be ended, it appears that Guatemala plans to formally renounce her claim to Belize; this act of renunciation could take place in 1992 or 1993. But although it is probable that Guatemala will continue to recognise the de facto existence of Belize, and will have renounced all claims to sovereignty, there remain fears over Guatemala's future internal stability which might encourage her to interfere in Belize's internal affairs.
6.
Throughout the region the steady increase in the trafficking of drugs is being complicated by the traffickers' growing sophistication and adaptability. With the drug cartels making good use of Central American states as a bridge to the USA the latter is heavily committed with large CN programmes to all the region's countries. But the endemic poverty, nepotism and a long tradition of corruption in the public service make these countries particularly vulnerable to attempts to suborn them. Belize has, perhaps, the best record in this respect and with support for intelligence gathering and logistics being provided by BFB, CN patrols being mounted regularly off her coast in conjunction with the BDF Maritime Wing (MW) and with the stiffening influence of WIGS and the USCG, there are grounds for believing that the tide of trafficking is at least running a little less strongly here.
In the light of the recommendations of the recent MOD Anti-Drugs Paper we have recently reviewed the level of CN support provided to the GOB by BFB. It has been concluded that training by BFB for the BDF and Belizean Police in CN tecniques, increased BFB patrolling by land, and more frequent WIGS participation in joint CN operations off the coast in conjunction with the USCG and BDF (MW), are areas which give scope for increased support to the Belizean government.
MILITARY ASSISTANCE
7.
With its command structure now fully Belizeanised, the continued viability of the Belize Defence Force (BDF) is an essential element of our policy towards Belize as the day approaches when we will start to draw down our garrison there. We have impressed on the Belizeans the need for an early review of the roles and organistion of the BDF to enable it to take on responsibility for Belizean security once this happens, and CBFB is also assesing independently how he sees the future role and organisation of the BDF. Initial views favour the maritime wing assuming more of a coastguard role, the air wing remaining on
C:\MP50\OQAREP\GENERAL.91
E:\ROWS\DOAREP.GEN
D-3
SECRET UK EYES A
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.