UK.
the
SECRET UK EYES A
Syria's decision to join the Coalition opened the way to restoration of diplomatic relations with UK and also provided the necessary cover for her armed forces to exercise their remit under the Taif Accord in Lebanon where a Pax Syriana has been imposed since the fall of Gen Aoun in 1990. While still wary of the West since GRANBY, Syria has shown some recent interest in acquiring western c2 technology, probably prompted by the failure of so many Soviet-made systems at the hands of the Iraqis. In the Lebanon itself an uneasy peace has descended over the past year. Political and economic stability will not return fully until all foreign forces are withdrawn and a solution found to the Palestinian problem. There are, nevertheless, some encouraging signs of regeneration and the potential for defence sales exists.
9.
Israel's stance of neutrality in the Gulf War may have assisted American efforts to broker a post-war peace but the chances of success of any Middle East peace conference are none too certain. The UK's policy to do nothing to damage our relations with the Gulf Arab states, and thus protect our important interests in oil and defence sales, means that our defence relationship with Israel (less special arrangements for intelligence) remains as delicate as ever. The policy has been strengthened because of Government distaste of Israel's continued occupation of southern Lebanon and itsmistreatment of Palestinian Arabs during the Intifada uprisings. Dependence on trade with Iraq and the presence of so many Palestinians in Jordan influenced King Hussein against joining the Coalition; the King has survived but Jordan lost the respect of western nations. The FCO, who see Jordan as playing an important role in the Middle East peace process, are therefore building bridges. Defence contacts are now being gradually fostered but are likely to be governed by the priority, in financial terms, placed on them by the Jordanians. The large slice of DPF assistance provided to Jordan prior to GRANBY (largely for traditional reasons) will no longer be available and DPF will increasingly be targeted on countries likely to provide the best return.
10.
Within the Near East, Britain's robust stance in the Gulf War is likely to reap most reward with the Egyptians, who have already indicated that they are eager to develop our Defence relationship. A draft MOU and 5 year plan have been drawn up to cover joint exercises on a tri-service basis. This includes provision for combined naval exercises, SF training and battalion level FTXS for troops based in Cyprus. The planning process was taken forward by staff visits to Cairo this autumn. Under the aegis of the UN, the search for a settlement to the Cyprus problem has continued, and the gap between negotiating positions of the Greeks and Turks has narrowed; but substantial differences still remain on the main issues of territory, displaced persons, security and constitutional matters. We will need to be sure that if a settlement materialises, our primary interest in Cyprus continued use of the SBAS is secured. Within the Maghreb, Libya remains a political pariah and relations with Algeria, despite a declared interest in co-operation with British forces,
C:\WP50\00AREP\GENERAL.91
E:\ROWI\0OAREP. GEN
B-3
SECRET UK EYES A
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.