SECRET UK EYES A
ANNEX B TO
D CTS STAFF (R) /77/334/1/2 DATED 24 OCT 91
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS AND MILITARY ASSISTANCE REGION
THE GULF
MIDDLE EAST
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
1.
The Gulf war and its aftermath has overshadowed all other regional events and the consequences of the invasion of Kuwait served to illustrate the Gulf states' vulnerability, their lack of military capability, their lack of a regional defence force and the importance of the widely based alliance which came to their assistance. Operation GRANBY clearly identified the political and military importance of a broad coalition and of burden sharing from those countries unable or unwilling to contribute military forces; it also reinforced the authority and power of the UN. The continued presence in power of Saddam Hussein and his belligerent and uncooperative attitude, especially over UN ceasefire resolutions, maintains an unwelcome air of uncertainty in the region. Slow progress on identifying and removing weapons of mass destruction (Operation ROCKINGHAM) adds to the regional tension.
2.
Since the war all the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have addressed, to differing degrees, the implications of these lessons, and this has involved the UK in increased military and political contact with the GCC states. The GCC, in conjunction with Syria and Egypt, produced the Damascus Declaration in March 1991 which envisaged a 6 + 2 multinational force for Gulf security. Since then the Gulf states have backed away from this agreement, and concentrated instead on plans for the provision of a 100,000 man force from the GCC states alone. Deliberations on this force continue, led by Oman, but there have been no decisions yet on how it should be organised, commanded or funded. Saudi Arabia has counter proposed a smaller 20,000 man force based on the old Peninsular Shield concept. Discussions on organisation centre on two options; the NATO style which seems to be favoured, and the supra-national option which would involve states placing forces under command in some central location. Progress is slow, and there is doubt if the political will and momentum
momentum exists to overcome the technical problems inherent in creating
creating a joint detterent force. Several Gulf states believe that the best hope for the defence of the region lies in building a network of bilateral relationships between the individual GCC states and the UK, US and France.
4. Although the Gulf states have traditionally distanced themselves from Iran there is a growing realisation that this country cannot be ignored when considering security
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SECRET UK EYES A
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