SECRET UK EYES A
that she will become indisputably the predominant regional military power in the future. This capability is unlikely to be used for deliberate aggression with the object of acquiring territory, but its nature and scale will make any resistance by its neighbours to Indian political hegemony increasingly irrational. Pakistan, however, will continue to develop its own military capability, including a nuclear weapon and a ballistic missile system, against the perceived threat. Among the small nations in the region which will be affected by India's growing influence is Nepal, and this may have implications for the UK's interests there. Indian military activities are likely to have repercussions in S.E. Asian countries. Also, the Mauritian claim to the BIOT, if strongly supported by others, could become a threat to UK interests in
the Indian Ocean.
SOUTH EAST ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
15.
Developments here are likely to transform the global status of this region to a considerably greater extent than
any other.
China and Japan will assume the role of leading players on the world stage, and be major influences on their neighbours. Indeed, Japan's political reach, based on economic strength and an increasing but relatively modest military muscle, will extend worldwide. The settlement of the Korean division or at least the creation of a peaceful modus vivendi (on the previous German lines?) at some point in the timeframe, could well coincide with a substantial region-wide reduction in US military presence. However, if there is no reconciliation between the two Koreas, North Korea may well have nuclear weapons by the early years of the next century: South Korea could follow suit, but this is considered unlikely. The economic and political strength of the countries of South East Asia and the Far East, together with their general maturity and sophistication, should endow the area with a remarkable degree of stability which augurs well for the United Kingdom's residual security concerns.
and.2s1
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