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UK EYES A
dependent territories, and assistance to various Commonwealth partners. There is a long history of instability in Central America. It is probable that Guatemala will continue to recognise the de facto existence of Belize, but fears over internal instability might encourage Guatemala to interfere in Belize's internal affairs. The UK garrison will probably have departed, but leaving a sizeable residual commitment to underpin the Belize Defence Force by training and other forms of assistance, eg, against any extension of guerilla activity from Guatemala into Belize. Other malign influences in the region will remain. Cuba's influence on the region is likely to continue to decline, with an increasing emphasis on conventional diplomacy and trade. It is even conceivable that in Cuba, post-Castro, democracy will develop along with rapprochement with the West.
ARGENTINA/FALKLAND ISLANDS/ANTARCTICA
3.
It is quite possible that Argentina's political and economic status could be transformed, albeit slowly and
haltingly, during the time frame. Its presently very unsteady democratic constitution may eventually secure its footing, although further political and economic crises and continuing strains in the relationship between the Government and the Military can be expected. A turnaround in economic fortunes, as a result perhaps of a substantial dismantling of state controls and consequently a more effective exploitation of the country's very sizeable natural resource base, would relieve many pressures, notably that on the military.
4. The JIC's latest report on the threat from Argentina's armed forces to the Falkland Islands assessed that a capability to mount a full-scale re-invasion could be put in place in not less than two years, given all the right circumstances. However, for the foreseeable future we judge the risk of this type of large-scale aggression as very low. In the very long term, although the development of Argentina as a military power is most unlikely to be an uninterrupted process for various combinations of political, economic and technical reasons, it would be prudent to assume that the
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