CONFIDENTIAL
UK EYES A
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3.
The FRG. Althought the full effects of the unification process have not yet been worked through, it is evident that very large scale changes are in prospect for the Bundeswehr. The question of deployment out of the NATO area is still unresolved despite apparently positive political statements made during and immediately after the Gulf war. At present a constitutional amendment - especially one which would widen the range of circumstances of deployment seems unlikely. Nevertheless, interpretations have broadened enough to deploy mine warfare units to the Gulf, as well as troops rendering humanitarian assistance in Iran. Force numbers will be constrained by CFE and the bilateral Stavropol Agreement to 370,000 men: if any are permitted to be deployed abroad, they are likely to be career volunteers. Although conscription is likely to remain, if only as a political imperative, such troops are liable to have a diminishing military utility. The navy, subject to the retention of the relevant programmes, is likely to embark on a major change of emphasis, retaining core skills only in areas of traditional expertise such as fast attack craft. Instead, the relative size of the blue-water force will be increased, stressing DD, FF and to, some extent, submarines. Some doubts remain over the MPA replacement with the demise of the P-7, and the Tornado arm will be reduced by
transfer of some aircraft to the Luftwaffe. The latter
service is acutely aware of its deficiences in transport, and some remedial action may well be put in train. The biggest area of uncertainty for that service lies in EFA, which may not be procured, and an alternative aircraft sought in its stead. Emphasis will be laid on AD, reconnaissance and
transport.
4.
Italy. Italy's OOA capabilities are likely to reflect her keen interest in preserving stability in the Mediterranean
area. Thus, the present ad-hoc Rapid Intervention Force (FIR) based on a parachute brigade, a motorized brigade, a marine battalion with integrated sealift, with helicopter, air transport and logistic elements, will probably be retained and refined. There will probably also be a continuation of the Rapid Assistance Force (FOPI), which is a tri-service
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UK EYES A CONFIDENTIAL
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