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3. The post-Gulf mood amongst thinking Japanese was chagrin and frustration. An Asahi columnist talked of "a sense of defeat"; a former Governor of the Bank of Japan spoke of "lack of policy, lack of initiative, lack of consultation". (Baker never visited Japan but made all his demands by telephone.) The Japanese, whose dearest wish is to fit into the world find instead that they are placed in a sort of double bind by the United States. Whatever they do seems to be wrong. The message they receive is that as as America is concerned they are not "one of us". We should not underestimate the long-run impact of this.
4. One result is that some Japanese, including impressive and Westernised business leaders like the President of Fuji Xerox, are talking about the need to "re-Asianise Japan". At the popular level this frustration is reflected in support for Ishihara (Japan which can say 'no') Shintaro. Others are saying they should get closer to Europe as a counter-weight to the US. The campaign for membership of the Security Council reflects the same wish to belong and to be consulted, as well as a desire for prestige. I told the Japanese that it was not enough to want to join: they had to explain how and why it was going to make the Security Council more effective if they were members.
5. Somewhere in this there are opportunities for the UK. Probably the most constructive thing we can do is to use the Prime Minister's relationship with President Mitterand to change his mind on G7. Everyone else in the French
Administration now accepts the case for using G7 to integrate Japan better into Western decision-making.
In due course the Prime Minister should visit Japan himself.
6. In my talks with Yukio Satoh (Tokyo's record attached for some copy addressees) the most interesting discussion was on Hong Kong. Satoh argued that we should focus on economic freedom and allow political freedom to take care of itself. Our emphasis, following Tiananmen Square, on western concepts like democracy and the bill of rights had been a disaster. Our objective should be to preserve Hong Kong's value to China and that meant a focus on the freedoms necessary to preserve its prosperity: these included freedom of information but not necessarily democracy. He welcomed the triangular dialogue between Japanese, British and Chinese Ministers in Peking but said it was important to keep in touch at lower levels as well: only two or three Japanese officials took much interest in Hong Kong and it was important that they should be properly briefed. Galsworthy, Andrew Burns or the Head of HKD should drop in on Japan now and then.
Tony
RC2AEJ
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