TNAG-2210-FCO40-3170-Future-of-Hong-Kong-political-parties-1991 — Page 95

CONFIDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG

TO PRIORITY FCO

TELNO 346

OF 010958Z FEBRUARY 91

INFO PRIORITY PEKING

401 HKB

(This is lip copy)

CONFIDENTIAL

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OUR TELNO 1449 OF 1990: THE POLITICAL SCENE IN THE MIDST OF THE DISTRICT BOARD ELECTION

SUMMARY

1. THE RAPID POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT REPORTED IN TUR CONTINUES AS

VARIOUS SECTIONS OF THE COMMUNITY STRIVE TO GET ORGANISED TO TAKE PART IN THIS YEAR'S THREE-TIER ELECTIONS. ALTHOUGH THE COMPETITION FOR DISTRICT BOARD (DB) SEATS IS APPARENTLY REDUCED, PARTICIPATION IN CANDIDATURE IS MORE ORGANISED AND THE POLITICAL AFFILIATIONS OF CANDIDATES PROVIDE A GOOD GUIDE TO THE EMERGING

POLITICAL ALIGNMENTS. THE LIBERALS ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGEST NUMBER OF DB CANDIDATES ALTHOUGH EFFORTS BY THE DIFFERENT FACTIONS TO FORM A COALITION FAILED. A DISTANT SECOND IN STRENGTH IS THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC FEDERATION (LDF) REPRESENTING BUSINESS AND PROFESSIONAL INTERESTS, FOLLOWED BY TRADITIONAL GROUPS AND PRO- CHINA GROUPS. MODERATES AND NEW TERRITORIES INTERESTS WERE LATE IN GETTING FORMALLY ORGANISED BUT ARE STILL CAPABLE OF MAKING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. DESPITE THE UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL OF PARTISAN ACTIVITIES, WELL OVER HALF OF THE CANDIDATES ARE STILL RUNNING AS INDEPENDENTS WITHOUT OVERT POLITICAL AFFILIATIONS.

DETAILS

DISTRICT BOARD

NOMINATIONS

2. NOMINATION OF CANDIDATES FOR THE MARCH DB ELECTION CLOSED ON 21 JANUARY. THERE ARE 472 CANDIDATES VYING FOR 274 ELECTED SEATS, AVERAGING 1.7 CANDIDATES PER SEAT. THE CORRESPONDING FIGURES FOR THE LAST DB ELECTION IN 1988 WE 493 CANDIDATES, 264 SEATS, AND 1.9 RESPECTIVELY. 30 PERCENT OF THE SEATS HAVE ALREADY BEEN DECIDED BECAUSE THE CANDIDATES ARE UNOPPOSED. THIS COMPARES WITH

13 PERCENT IN 1988.

3. THIS ELECTION IS CLEARLY LESS COMPETITIVE THAN THE LAST ONE. ONE OFT-CITED REASON IS PEOPLE'S PERCEPTION, RIGHTLY OR WRONGLY THAT DB'S ROLE IS DIMINISHING. ANOTHER, POSSIBLY MORE VALID, REASON IS THAT IN SOME CONSTITUENCIES, INCUMBENTS HAVE MANAGED TO

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