Estimate for 1990 and Beyond
4.
Our preliminary forecast, first made in September 1989, of the number of emigrants leaving Hong Kong in 1990 was 55,000. Information received since then suggests that this figure would be exceeded and could be as high as 60,000 (or an average of 1,100
an
to 1,200 per week). Our forecast will be updated in early October when more up-to-date data are received from local consulates.
5.
The emigration of 55,000 to 60.000 people is the highest level ever sustained by Hong Kong. It may be compared with about 45,000 each year in 1988 and 1989, and 30,000 in
in 1987, against a stable historical average of about 20,000 in the 1970s and the early part of 1980s.
6.
For 1990, there ате two main reasons for the difference between OUT earlier and latest forecasts. First, in late last year and early this year, the Canadian Commission made a determined effort to clear the backlog of applications. They employed more local staff and redeployed specialists from Canada. This resulted in a sharp increase in the number of visas issued in 1990, and, inevitably an expected high level of departure by the close of 1990. Canada now takes up about half of all our emigrants. Secondly, the Singaporean scheme has begun to make an impact. Although the number of people actually leaving remains low compared with the number of approvals given, about 20 local families are leaving per week for Singapore under various Singaporean immigration schemes applied to Hong Kong.
7.
For 1991 we expect the level of total emigration to remain at 55,000 to 60,000. The bulk of emigration in 1991 would be determined by visas approved this year. Assuming that there will be no significant changes to the immigration policies of the major destination countries and the political situation in China remains stable, we expect the British nationality package to begin to bring the volume of emigration down towards the end of 1991.
TO SHA
At:8 AP-J. MA..
XH
פחהו רחב
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.