TNAG-2194-FCO40-3131-Hong-Kong-nationality-package-1990 — Page 14

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to the rebels that it would be incredibly damaging to

to the confidence of HK people in HK if the Bill failed to get through Parliament. He however emphasized that he was confident that the Bill would be approved by Parliament.

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

8.

Paddy Ashdown, when interviewed, said his party would try to press for amendment to increase the number of passports to be given. If failed, his party would still support the Bill.

SIZE OF REBELLION

9.

ITV political commentator said 51 Conservative rebels would be sufficient to defeat the Bill. It was however estimated that the rebellion would only be in the region of 40. Coupled with minor parties support and some Labour rebels (about 30), the Bill should be able to pass through its second reading. However, when it reaches the Committee stage, there is a danger that Conservative rebels may attempt to kill the Bill by filibustering. Conservative backbenchers do not believe the

do defeat of the Bill would be a matter of resignation for either individual minister or the Government. The commentator quoted Government sources that the Bill was not significant enough to be a resigning matter.

ENDS